A Record Almond Crop Depresses Almond Prices
The first estimate of the 2001 almond crop was issued recently and was 875 million lbs.
If this estimate holds, this will be an all-time record crop (the previous record was 830 million lbs for the 1999 crop).
This crop estimate caught many by surprise, as pollination weather was far from ideal. Per acre yields will likely be less than in 1999 – the increased almond acreage is the main reason for the (apparently) record crop.
As might be expected, almond prices have dropped significantly after this forecast was released. They are currently around 70¢/lb. Most growers figure that $1.00/lb is the break-even point.
The May crop estimate is a subjective one (growers and handlers were polled by phone). An objective estimate (made by a nut count on the trees in a number of different areas) will be released on June 28.
For further information on almond yields, prices, etc., there are 2 good web sites: