# Time to get nervous # 2



## Honey-4-All

On 12. 20.2013 I posted my concern about the water situation in California. This is still a big and growing concern but a new one is on the horizon. 

_Here is a heads up for all of you who pollinate almonds_.

The weather here has been gorgeous. Up to 70 with close to freezing at night. Because of the lack of rain and the great weather I began to think about an early almond bloom showing up in 2014 similar to the one we had about a decade or so back. 

This morning my Dad came in to chat and we talked about watering our almonds. He also casually mentioned that the buds on the trees were turning red. OH NO I thought!!!!! Here we go and way to early. 

With highs in the mid 60's the next week and rain at least a week off I want to give a big heads up to all you beeks who show up in California to meet the pink lady!!!!!
*
Things might change but you all need to be ready to rumble early this year if things stay on the current track. I am not saying we are going to have a January bloom at this point but the possibility is the greatest I have seen in 30 years. *

Will keep you posted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## gmcharlie

If your right, thats going to drive pollination prices thru the roof. very few will have bees ready to go.


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## JRG13

Now you got me nervous, my white nectarine looks like it might start popping in 2 weeks, and the cherries have initiated bud swell as well........ they look like trees you would order in march for bare-root almost.


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## babybee

If all came to pass, as in early early, what time would you be thinking? Jan 15, 20, 25, or 30?


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## Honey-4-All

JRG13 said:


> Now you got me nervous, my white nectarine looks like it might start popping in 2 weeks, and the cherries have initiated bud swell as well........ they look like trees you would order in march for bare-root almost.


Even though my caption say says "nervous" its not my point........... Mostly a heads up..... A big heads UP!!!!!! An early almond bloom encapsulated by the drought is going to make this very interesting once the almonds are finished. 

Not fun or profitable...... interesting. 

I'm personally wading warily as to possible ramifications and considering some very drastic options being left on the plate we are being handed. The good ones are few and diminishing while the drastic ones look increasingly dismal.


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## Honey-4-All

gmcharlie said:


> If your right, thats going to drive pollination prices thru the roof. very few will have bees ready to go.


A word to the wise...... At this point I would cancel my reservations to the conventions and get my bee suit back on and get my bum to work!!! Like pronto.


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## Honey-4-All

babybee said:


> If all came to pass, as in early early, what time would you be thinking? Jan 15, 20, 25, or 30?


Not saying yet. Will be watching the trees at home and my "indicator" trees which often give a week + heads up. The earliest I can remember in the past was the first few days of February. The answer really depends on what happens with the weather in the next few weeks. Thats out of my control. Just being observant at this point.


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## Jon B

Thanks for the update. I usually don't send my hives to California until the end of January.


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## westernbeekeeper

Need my 5 pallets of singles yet, Phil?


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## G B

Well Phil I got a call from the commercial guy I work with . He said to be ready to head out no later than jan 20.much earlier than in the last few years, so who knows?


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## davidsbees

Went to feed in the foothills today gooseberrys blooming at least 3weeks early. Don't think we ever got winter bees brooded all winter, bees flew every day good thing I fed all winter remindes me of Southern California.


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## Honey-4-All

davidsbees said:


> Went to feed in the foothills today gooseberrys blooming at least* 3weeks early*. Don't think we ever got winter bees brooded all winter, bees flew every day good thing I fed all winter remindes me of Southern California.


This is the antidotal confirmation I'm looking for from other folks. Anyone else seeing similar observations?


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## Honey-4-All

Little more heads up for those of you wondering what is happening with the almond bloom. 

We have had March weather for a good while already the past few weeks. 70 degrees today outside right now as I type. The buds are pushing on the early variteties, 

If this keeps up it is my guess at this point that the general almond bloom will begin or be going about a month from today. If you look at the link you will see different stages of the fruit bud. 

On Thursday I stopped by one of my indicator trees to see how it was progressing. 

Sitting on my desk is a sprig from the tree and has moved to the picture #2 stage where there is "hair" on the swelling buds. 

http://thealmonddoctor.com/almond/the-seasonal-patterns-of-almond-production/ 

If I see green tips within 10 days the whole thing will be on a roll in less than a month.


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## gmcharlie

Phil, how far off the norm is that? I always heard last 2 weeks of feb..?


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## Honey-4-All

Barring a major cold snap my guess is that right now it is 5-7 days advanced at this point... maybe a slight hair more. Supposed to get "rain" here next week but the way the satellite photos look I would bet its not going to give us more than a spritz. Average daily temps forecast to be 8-10 degrees above the average for the next week. Fortunately the nights are still pretty cool.... about 5 -7 below the averages. This will help slow the buds down. Looks like a battle for the buds on both ends. We are all hoping the lows don't continue once the flowers open (or later)


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## Keith Jarrett

Honey-4-All said:


> I would cancel my reservations to the conventions and get my bee suit back on and get my bum to work!!! Like pronto.


Whaaaat......... what a concept........who would have ever thought.


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## odfrank

I today checked two of the few booming hives I have, and they have filled most of a medium super of winter eucalyptus honey.


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## Honey-4-All

Keith Jarrett said:


> Whaaaat......... what a concept........who would have ever thought.


What you thinking time wise at this point?


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## RDY-B

Titel of the thread is time to get nervous---Honey -4- All sets a time line of 5-7 days early 
other threads say watter cut to growers on eastside-growers tell me maybe they will be cut by 3 delivers whole year -readjust there watering schedule acordingly---
Down in the valley away from the northern groves no one is nervious-trees are not pushing 
Let the rain take its time --april may and june means good mating for early queens and fat packages with a baner honey crop
seams to me this is a blessing enjoy it this dosent happen every year put it all on Red and let it ride---RDY-B


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## Keith Jarrett

Honey-4-All said:


> What you thinking time wise at this point?


I'm thinking the trees have not got there chilling hours in yet.


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## Honey-4-All

Picture in the local paper of an open almond Bloom in Benicia at a local state park. Open on January 6, 2014. 

65 today and 70's next week. No rain for 10 more days. Every day this keeps up the closer to Feb 1 i'm guessing the bloom is going to be rocking.


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## MNbees

At this point if it were to turn to rain that would be the thing that would make the bloom very early.
Rain= warm nights= pushing the bloom early.
seems like the nights are fairly cool as of now


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## JWChesnut

Bud swelling before pink is driven by root formation and soil water as well as temperature. Our current cold nights (air is very dry and holds no heat) is holding things back in the SJ. However, I've seen farmers "banking" water in the soil in anticipation of delivery cut-off.

Not to be chicken-little, but the nut farmers are in a bind --- if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.

I suspect the farmers will go light on hives because it represents a sunk cost going into a bad year. They may assume the June drop will be high and want to reduce the set to size up the remaining nuts the trees will actually support to harvest. Or they may assume that the blossoms are going to freeze or wash off, and will avoid spending money on a weather loss.

Nut prices will spike -- does that mean even more planting as speculators run the per acre return at the pricing, or does it mean other nuts are going to substituted in consumer foods and the almond demand will finally hit its supply/demand limit.


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## BlueDiamond

JWChesnut said:


> if spring rains come (and January looks like a zero), then the blossoms wash off the trees in the 1990-style "miracle March". If spring rains fail, then water deliveries will be curtailed and the "June drop" will shrink the crop. Either way, the farmers are looking at bad year.


No March miracle is in sight according to the climate modelers. Accuweather.com's Feb.& March precipitation outlook for California is bleak: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...e-monthly-long-range-forecast-models/21898625 Even worse, the NOAA long range outlook is for above average temperatures over most of California this coming summer: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7


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## Honey-4-All

Update. Upper 60's through lower 70's forecast all week. Rain at least a week off once again. Wagers on a end of January Almond bloom are looking to be well placed bets. 


After the Norcal queen breeders meeting on Wednesday I will be posting some predictions on "Time to get worried # 3." Anyone want to guess what the subject is going to be about?


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## loggermike

From the NWS: "Earlier indications of a possible pattern change to a "wetter"
pattern during the latter two weeks of Jan seem to be waning as
the West Coast ridge diverts the Pacific jet well to the north...

otherwise more
unseasonably mild wx with mid 60s to mid 70s for the valley and
lower foothills and mainly 50s and 60s in the mtns...possibly
nearing some record maxes..."

We had a light rain in the North on Saturday, but still looking dry. California is gonna burn this summer


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## Honey-4-All

loggermike said:


> We had a light rain in the North on Saturday, but still looking dry. California is gonna burn this summer


Mike: Our rain consisted of a mist so light it passed by as fleetingly as a drone's singular moment of glory. T'was gone before it came. 

Your use of the word BURN is such a gentle description of what lies ahead. If this place fails to achieve the status of "inferno" I will be shocked. 

Time to start the talk about reducing numbers or do the Out-of- state shuffle for anyone who doesn't personally own their own version of Spreckels or us.


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## loggermike

Exactly. Gonna have to make some drastic changes to deal with this drought situation. 

On the other hand, Feb and March might be wet. Probably will rain all through the bloom!


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## RAK

Talked to the growers I work with. They dont think the bloom will be here earlier than feb 1st. For this time they say the buds look normal.


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## marshmasterpat

One of the big guys in my area shipped everything out by the end of last week. Left behind some swarms, maybe queenless, but still free bees giving a few snowbirds a surprise. I assume the hives are sitting over there now.


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## RDY-B

california bees for california almonds- the bees looks TITS ON a RITZ whats the wory 
im trying to keep up with this--Almond prices are going to stay up---demand wont decline
It will rain my man-- it comes every year-- RDY-B


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## BeeGhost

Talked to my farmer last night and he said the buds are small on the trees this year. He also said he talked to a friend of his that is a crop insurance agent
and he said he has never been employed by as many almond growers as he has this year.


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## Honey-4-All

Couple of updates.

Still have warm temps during the days followed with below average nighttime lows. Green tips peaking on some early trees. Big commercial guys are starting to put in as of today.


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## RAK

Growers gave us thumbs up for last week of Jan. Bloom should start around 10th but no one is real sure. Why is Bluediamond posting their results on website?


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## Honey-4-All

Little update. The weather continues to roast us. 73 outside as I type. Locally about 50% of the bees are already in the almonds. Noticing a couple of ramifications from the heat and drought. No food out there so the bees are very hot on robbing. Secondly, since we have had no rain the ants are not pushed back into the ground are hell bent on attacking anything they can. I have never had ants on the bees in the Almonds in 30 years. They are on the sides of the boxes right now looking to find a way in. As hot as its is I can't imagine how those 1000" hive holding yards are fairing. Has to be a lot of robbing going down as the bees burn up what winter stores they have and burn themselves out looking for what is not out there. Still think the trees will be open around February 2-4 +- a few days.


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## Ian

Given the heat and dryness, do you expect less nectar and poor quality pollen production?
Are you anticipating having to feed more supplemental feed through the next three weeks?
And with those kinda bee pressures, how do you feed without everything getting tore up with robbing?


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## Matt Beekman

Yes.
Yes.
:waiting:


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## RAK

Ian said:


> Given the heat and dryness, do you expect less nectar and poor quality pollen production?
> Are you anticipating having to feed more supplemental feed through the next three weeks?
> And with those kinda bee pressures, how do you feed without everything getting tore up with robbing?


Since the growers are watering im expecting some nectar. Almonds 2013 were a dry month with high temps had sufficient nectar. We strapped all our pallets down so other bees wont get through lids. The robbing isnt terribly bad. All good hives defend well, all dinks have been shaken. Some open barrel feeding is also helping.


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## Ian

good luck guys on the upcoming pollination!!


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## Honey-4-All

Ian said:


> good luck guys on the upcoming pollination!!



Its not the almond pollination I'm worried about (yet) although a freeze because of the early bloom and the dryness might toss that potential food source in the can. The real issue is i have no clue where the heck are the bees gonna get breakfast, lunch, and dinner from once the almonds are finished.

It is so bad out there that I might as well ask them to go find lunch in the peace river valley mid February. That or rocket them to the back side of the moon. The build up is going to be non existent and the robbing so bad I might as well move them to Compton so they can hang with the rest of the bangers.


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## JWChesnut

Bulldozing old orchards to save water on westside in Firebaugh.
http://www.fresnobee.com/2014/01/18/3721739/desperatemeasuresfor-valley-farmers.html

Turlock situation
http://www.mercedsunstar.com/2014/01/14/3440843/turlock-irrigation-district-farmers.html

Modesto decides against "charging" the canals to flow January water to tree crops.
http://www.modbee.com/2014/01/14/3134667/modesto-irrigation-district-leaders.html

Fresno Bee editorializes for Well Pumping regulation due to Almond wells in Stanislaus
http://www.fresnobee.com/2014/01/15/3715943/editorial-valley-leaders-must.html

Oakdale rejects Almond farmer's request, plans on export sale of allotment
http://www.modbee.com/2014/01/21/3146632/oakdale-irrigation-district-may.html


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## BlueDiamond

Most of California's almonds are grown in climate division 5, which is called the San Joaquin drainage: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/images/climmap.gif

2013 was the driest year ever in climate division 5 since records were kept beginning in 1895: http://imageshack.com/a/img843/9269/8byp.jpg


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## BlueDiamond

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/clark/the-same-drum-beat-the-same-strong-ridge/22409533 Excerpt: "While it will rain again, our very-long-range models continue to say that precipitation will average below, to much below, normal in central and Southern California the rest of the rainfall season."


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## Honey-4-All

Time for a serious dose of reality. All of the California yards coming out of the almonds might as well be considered worthless if the are not irrigated. Even those are going to be marginal as all the wildflowers on the fringes are non existent. As of today the we have hit a new milestone. See:

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...-california-hasnt-been-this-dry-in-500-years/

By this weekend we are going to be watering our almonds from the well for the second time this winter. Even after watering a few weeks back the ground is still hard as a rock. 

Every day the rain continues to be held at bay the more I get concerned about queen production as well as the quantity of packages that are going to get made up in California. Ouch!!!!!!


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## grozzie2

Honey-4-All said:


> Every day the rain continues to be held at bay


Been reading this thread as it grows, read the articles in the links. Just reminds me of something I say to folks around here a lot. Our little corner of the world in the pacific northwest is unique in this world. In the vast majority of the world, value of land is defined by the availability of water. Here in our little corner, the value of land is defined by the availability of drainage. Any spot without good drainage, quickly becomes a swamp.

I saw the prices you folks pay for water in some of those links, wowsers. If we could just figure out a way to make my property drain onto yours, we'd all be laughing. I've only got a couple acres, but, it's already had over a foot of rain this year, and lots more in the short term forecast. We have a stream cutting our property in half, and on the weekend, that stream almost overtopped a 16 inch culvert, had me worried for a while. It's doing a lot better today, theres 4 inches of headroom, and growing. We have two more of those, one on the front and another on the back property line, all carrying roughly the same amount of water.

Reading a thread like this helps remind me at times, water is indeed a blessing, and not the curse we view it as at times.


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## JWChesnut

Severe drought guidance issued for Almonds --
*http://thealmonddoctor.com/2014/01/16/severe-drought-management-recommendations-almond/*

"UC researchers have urged growers not to take aggressive actions in reducing tree size or crop load in response to the West side water shortages this year. Severe pruning will increase new growth which would increase the leaf surface and evapo-transpiration rates (ETc) of the tree. Crop thinning has a similar effect and is also not recommended."
.......................
" In general, if the tree is able to maintain some of its leaves until the fall, the tree probably will survive. Yields will be affected severely for the next 2 years. This year would be a good year to remove older blocks with declining production and divert the water to younger blocks if possible."


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## Matt Beekman

Was just advised there is a small amount of bloom on an early variety (Sonora) in one of my orchards I pollinate. crazy


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## Honey-4-All

Question is????? How many of those loads from Texas and Florida are still sitting waited to be loaded. Forecast for a day in the 80's here next week. If that doesn't get them popping nothing will?


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## Honey-4-All

Thanks for the heads up Matt. After reading you post I decided to run out back and see how ours were fairing. From the looks of it I think we will have Winters open By Wednesday ( january 29) and some nons open by Thursday January 30. Night time temps are up. They will go now.


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## Fusion_power

So the almost unheard of is happening. Pollen set in California Almonds by Feb 1st. I sure hope the truck drivers are careful. Nobody likes to clean up a load of spilled bees.


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## swarm_trapper

Sounds like most loads are leaving Fl starting next week and the following, most are shipping out the 1st and 2nd of Feb. 
Nick


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## MNbees

Bees are moving out of texas like crazy. Couldnt ask for better loading weather. 

wondering about the nectar flow with the drought?


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## Honey-4-All

MNbees said:


> wondering about the nectar flow with the drought?


Nectar flow......... Funny...... This year it will known to come from only one source...... The *silver tipped syrup hose* as we say when using its common name. Beekeepers here call it the *Bee welfare bonnet* After the almonds its about all they will find.


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## Honey-4-All

swarm_trapper said:


> Sounds like most loads are leaving Fl starting next week and the following, most are shipping out the 1st and 2nd of Feb.
> Nick


How many day trip is it? Sounds like somebody needs to step up the time frame. That or put them on a C5.


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## MNbees

I was wondering about the almond nectar.


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## Honey-4-All

If its 61 or 62 degrees and above your chances are pretty good in the afternoons. In the 50's it gets pretty dicey. All depends on what we get dealt temp wise once they are rolling. If the weather stays as is the bloom will be fast and the loads will need to be lightened to get them home. statistics say otherwise cause of the early bloom......... But as we see this isn't an average year.


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## Trevor Mansell

My grower doesn't want the bees until after the 10th ,so I think we have plenty of time.


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## Fusion_power

> My grower doesn't want the bees until after the 10th ,so I think we have plenty of time.


That will last until the grower sees 10% bloom on his trees and he will get antsy and be on the phone. Just in case preparation would be suggested.


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## Honey-4-All

Trevor Mansell said:


> My grower doesn't want the bees until after the 10th ,so I think we have plenty of time.


Unless he has all late blooming trees you might want to check with the semi driver as to how cheap standby time is? Might be better to just have him idle (carb rules aside) and just take them off of one side of the truck and reload them on the other after they touch the ground and make it all legal. FYI this is a little tounge-in-cheek but might not be to far off from the way it looks right now. Where are these trees at anyways?


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## JWChesnut

In the Manteca trials, 2003 had blooms by the Feb 1st and a short abbreviated season.


The whole dataset (1998-2010) is here -- worthwhile to see the variation and spread.
http://cesanjoaquin.ucanr.edu/files/35916.pdf


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## Honey-4-All

JW great homework on your part... Were you trained as a research lead investigator or librarian perhaps? 

I do remember that year although I couldn't recall of hand when it was. In early and out quick. If you know of any good links to compare the 03 January weather data to the averages I would love to see them. My gut feeling is that as now we were warmer than average. Anyone want to lay down a bet that the 2014 chart for the nonpariels is going to be a week ahead of the 03 chart. There is no holding back at this point. 

I'm outa here for the evening.... time to check the pump watering the almonds, go to bed, and drop those bees sitting on the truck in the morning before tomorrows version of California January tan time shows up. 78 here today...... 72 tomorrow.


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## JRG13

Trees popping on the I-5 corridor already.....


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## JWChesnut

Honey-4-All said:


> J
> I do remember that year although I couldn't recall of hand when it was. In early and out quick. .


California funds a network of agricultural weatherstations called "CIMIS" you can download historic data with your browser. Lots of values (ETo -- or irrigation need is the major economic one).
http://wwwcimis.water.ca.gov/cimis/welcome.jsp
((I work with CIMIS data all the time for my "day job" research -- plant ecology/natural restoration))
Comparing 2002-03 records with 2013-14 data (and the long term average) for Manteca. Manteca is the site of the experimental Almond Orchard -- also State of Ca funded.

2003 had fluctuating temperatures at the Max. 2014 has stayed consistently 10-15 degrees above average Max since the cold snap of early December ended.
As you have noted, the dry air means the night-time low minimums have also been much below normal. Warm days, really cold nights.


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## Fusion_power

If you read that temperature trend line and correlate it with the 2003 bloom data, full bloom will be reached on early varieties by Feb 3rd. Growers are going to be going bananas trying to get bees moved into the groves in time.


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## swarm_trapper

The ride out there is 3-4 days All the brokers i have talked to do not want the bees till after the 3rd. I talked to the FL inspector yesterday the way she talked is, really hardly any loads have left yet. Also it sounds like Fl will be short on bees heading out there.


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## loggermike

From the NWS:Extended models continue to indicate shortwave energy undercutting
the ridge. The GFS is quickest in doing so, bringing area-wide
precipitation as early as early Thursday morning. The ECMWF and
Canadian counterparts bring a more highly amplified front through
the region late Thursday and Friday. Regardless, all models show a
decent moisture plume and favorable dynamics with this system. While
timing leaves much to be desired, it`s becoming increasingly
likely that precipitation will fall at some point late next week.
We`ve bumped up chances of precipitation in the forecast, but have
hedged the numbers due to uncertainty in timing."

Hey, you just know its gonna rain when the push comes to get the last hives in. Rock hard orchard ground turns to slippery gumbo mud. Then the real fun begins.

Didn't see any blooms popping yet in the Chico area yesterday when we were down there working hives, but some orchards were getting that 'thick' look about them.The cold nights have been holding them back, but a few cloudy warmer nights should get things moving.


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## Nick Noyes

loggermike said:


> Didn't see any blooms popping yet in the Chico area yesterday when we were down there working hives, but some orchards were getting that 'thick' look about them.The cold nights have been holding them back, but a few cloudy warmer nights should get things moving.


This is what I have been hearing also.


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## Honey-4-All

Nick, Whats the news on the bees coming out of the cellars? heard anything?


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## JWChesnut

Dry air (and dry soil) raise the likelihood of frost damage. The drier the air the earlier you have to turn on sprinklers in order to moderate the frost. (Until the air saturates to the wet bulb temp, the sprinklers actually make it colder). 

No. Cal will get some marine moist air next week. San Joaquin will still be in the continental dry air flowing out of Utah.

If the bloom is early, you have an extra 10-14 days of risk to frost.


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## Keith Jarrett

JWChesnut said:


> the sprinklers actually make it colder).


So, if I understand you correctly, the sprinklers with warm ground water is colder than the outside air temps?


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## JWChesnut

Keith Jarrett said:


> So, if I understand you correctly, the sprinklers with warm ground water is colder than the outside air temps?


*YES*... This is important to know.
From UC Extension:: "" Sprinkling water into relatively dry air (nights with low dewpoints) will result in high rates of evaporation and rapid *temperature drop* until the air becomes saturated. Consequently, sprinklers must be turned on enough in advance of the critical temperature to allow for this. ""
http://ceglenn.ucanr.edu/files/44640.pdf has a really useful dewpoint temp calculator for frost protection.

Phase change (from liquid water to vapor) strips enormous heat (think evaporative cooler on the roof of valley homes). Once the air is saturated and evaporation ceases, the 60 degree well water can radiate heat into the air. Until dew point is reached, and evaporation ends, that state transition is pulling enormous heat from the outside air. Inversely, the phase change from liquid to ice, releases heat into the air. Shallow, rapidly freezing water will warm the air above it.


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## Nick Noyes

Honey-4-All said:


> Nick, Whats the news on the bees coming out of the cellars? heard anything?


We are shipping now, going to start going through them on monday. I don't anticapate any major problems. We will know for sure in 2 weeks.
Boss says the spot check looks good and no one is screaming for bees yet.


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## Keith Jarrett

JWChesnut;1049617Consequently said:


> Agree, like most things, TIMING is everything, sprinklers for frost protection has been used for years.


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## Trevor Mansell

It looks like some pretty cool weather coming in next week ,if some of these guys can't run frost protection it could be a disaster.


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## Honey-4-All

Not like there's not enough to worry about. 

Yesterday I was going through hives doing frame count inspections when I found three (out of about 100) building cell cups on the bottoms of the frames in the middles. One even had an egg inside. Swarms in February.......... yea.... that's what we need. When its April in January i suppose the bees will act like its April. go figure!!!!!!!!


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## JWChesnut

Talking to a grower I work with today. They have a diversified orchard in Firebaugh. Less worried about early Almonds than they are for the Cherry crop and the early plums, apricots, and plucots. The Cherry especially has been pushed by the heat, and may overlap the Almonds. My grower says the Cherry is far more sensitive to a March rain and the flowers freeze more easily than the almonds. There are occassional cherry already popping.


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## Honey-4-All

Re the cherries: They have to be can-17 or something similar I would suppose. I've always thought that the greedy bird who wants to land on a Japanese market is occasionally open to getting his feather plucked on his way to a hard landing. I think I'll rent those dinks for $225. Those cherries are going to look a little red when the grower would rather have them taste black.


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## JRG13

Coming back up from Visalia today, saw some almonds just starting to bloom about 80 miles south of Sac.... couple trees were around 30% at least, most just starting to pop a few noticeable blooms in the donor rows.


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## Tony Rogers

JRG13 said:


> Coming back up from Visalia today, saw some almonds just starting to bloom about 80 miles south of Sac.... couple trees were around 30% at least, most just starting to pop a few noticeable blooms in the donor rows.


Were these early bloom variety? Also along the same question, how far behind the early bloom almonds do the later blooming variety bloom?


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## MNbees

waiting on the Blue Diamond web site to update soon

http://bluediamond.com/applications/in-the-field/index.cfm?navid=101


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## Honey-4-All

:waiting:Whoever is running that thing has been asleep way to long.


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## JWChesnut

Deal to sell eastside water to Westlands ID at $400 / AF rejected after community uproar.
http://www.mercedsunstar.com/2014/01/28/3464908/oid-directors-switch-votes-reject.html

Goes without saying that $400/AF is pricey water at the well head.


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## JWChesnut

Curtailment notices sent -- orders to stop diversion prepared...
http://agalert.com/story/?id=6347

Northern California Water Association President David Guy described the water board notice as both necessary and positive, in that its action gets all water users thinking about the drought and putting together plans to cope with it. Notice of the potential for curtailment of water diversions has not been issued since the drought of 1977, he said.

"Come February, there will be follow-up on the notice," Guy said. "This first notice is just a warning. Right now, there is no water in the system," which he said leaves confirmed water rights as little more than "interesting pieces of paper."

The Orland-Artois Water District, which serves farmers in Glenn County and is considered a junior water rights holder, ran out of water last week, said farmer and district board president Mike Vereschagin of Orland.

"That includes CVP (Central Valley Project) contract water and purchased water from other districts," he said. "With this unprecedented drought, extensive irrigation has been occurring in December and January in orchards and winter grain and forage crops. There also has been extensive use of groundwater, along with the surface water."

In the first three weeks of irrigation in January, the district delivered more than triple the amount of water it has ever delivered for the full month of January, he said.

Almond bloom is going to be early this year and Vereschagin said if there's need for frost control before the end of February, his district has no water to deliver.

"There's great concern about how the wells will hold up," he said. "Most everyone believes wells will be going dry this year."

*Meanwhile, beekeepers say they're finding farmers with orchard crops are cutting back on pollination as a way to suppress fruit and nut crops and stretch water supplies through the growing season.*


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## RAK

Tony Rogers said:


> Were these early bloom variety? Also along the same question, how far behind the early bloom almonds do the later blooming variety bloom?


Im guessing the later varieties will start blooming around 10th.


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## JRG13

Yes, only saw the early rows popping.


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## JWChesnut

I tend to be a chicken-little on California drought --- here's some data to reduce the alarm. There is no, nada, zero, zip relationship between October-January precipitation, and the spring rain total (see chart of 120 years of Sacramento watershed data). Just because it has been exceptionally dry so far, there is no historical reason to expect that the spring will be anything but normal. Of course normal (for the Nor Cal Sacramento watershed) is 21" of rain for the spring, so the cumulative yearly total would still be major drought. We are about 60% through the "normal year" in terms of total precip. Standard deviation is +- 8.5 inches from the expected average of 21" this spring


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## Honey-4-All

Say we get 1 inch out of this one the next few days. Not betting on it BTW. When you look out at the 10 day forecast the rest is DRY! If you put those into the data then what are the odds of finishing up at 50% of the yearly totals? My guess less than 50/50 we get even that much. We would have to get almost an inch a week to make it happen.:shhhh:


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## RayMarler

Yes JWCesnut, but here's the thing, we have no snow pack and it's getting so late, not much chance of getting one now. Rain is good, hope we get some, but I don't foresee much snow. Hope I'm wrong.


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## JWChesnut

RayMarler said:


> we have no snow pack and it's getting so late, not much chance of getting one now.


Worse where I am. Manzanita, sage, buckbrush, and oak trees are not just dropping leaves, but dying flat-out. If the bees don't starve, they are likely to burn up in the summer fires. Fireproofing the out-yards has never been more important.


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## Fusion_power

Getting close.


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## Honey-4-All

Honey-4-All said:


> *
> Things might change but you all need to be ready to rumble early this year if things stay on the current track. I am not saying we are going to have a January bloom at this point but the possibility is the greatest I have seen in 30 years. [/B*


*

A month ago today I said there was a possibility of a January bloom. Just got back from checking the water on our last block and up in the trees the nonpareils are so ready they could not be any closer. On the first tree in we have one blossom open as of this morning.


These are not wild or stressed trees. By this afternoon there will be more and the way things look at the intersection of tree and forecast we should have things really rolling on the back side of the weekend at the latest. 

Hoping for warm nights at this point!!!!

If there ever was a guy praying for rain with half his heart while the other half wants it to hold off it would be me right now. This is going to be one interesting year both almond wise and bee wise in NORCAL.*


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## Tony Rogers

Very Cool! Typically how long does the bloom last once it starts? I am curious as this is a new experience for me with bees down in the almonds around Bakersfield. I've only have 14 down there but it's a start.


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## loggermike

Just got home from putting some in an orchard south of Chico. Butte was in green tip and the orchard on the other side was in pink tip and ready to roll. The road was muddy!(some of it was from the rain) Saw a bit of scattered bloom popping open.So yep Phil, you told us so.:thumbsup:


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## azbees

Any rain today near the Almonds?


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## Ian

Fusion , that looks further along than close


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## loggermike

I dont think the rain amounted to much, but it was nice while it fell. This reminds me of the 76/77 drought. In 77 the area I summer my bees in all burned up in massive forest fires.There is no snow in the high country. It looks like deja vu all over again! 

Where you gonna run to?Where you gonna hide! Anyone sell fire insurance for bees?


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## Honey-4-All

Sure all those big guys that i have heard purchased the "no rain" insurance are going to collect a very handsome check if they picked the right months. Another one of those big gvt schemes I'm really not so sure about. Ment to help the small guy ( theoretically )but works out to be big buck flowing from the ratepayers pockets into the pockets of the few.


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## JWChesnut

From National Weather Service:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...oduct1=Special+Weather+Statement#.Uu1uPvbK5y9

January 2014 re-wrote the record books in Sacramento. Here are the highlights:

1. Record longest dry period during the rainy season (Nov-Mar), 52 days
2. Third driest Jan. in history (since 1850)
3. January precipitation 5% of normal
4. Highest average maximum temperature 66.1 degrees (normal average is 55.1
5. New all-time record high temperature for January NEW (79 degrees)
6. Record number of days with high temperature of 70 degrees or higher.
7. Tied the record for consecutive days of high temperature 70 degrees or higher.
8. Record high temperature set on 12 different days in January
9. Every day in January 2014 the daytime high temperature was above normal for the month.
10. FINALLY, WE ARE HOPING FOR A FABULOUS FEB 2014. ALL-TIME RECORD FOR RAIN IN FEB IS 10.30 INCHES SET IN 1986. HAVE A NICE WEEKEND!

SPECIAL NOTE on the data: SACRAMENTO RECORDS date BACK TO 1849 FOR PRECIPITATION AND 1877 FOR TEMPERATURES.


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## squarepeg

huh. so that's where all of our january warm weather went. we've been colder that normal all month.

I guess it depends on how the jet stream drops.


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## loggermike

NWS predicting heavy rain next weekend . We shall see..


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## RAK

Im praying.


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## JWChesnut

The little cutoff low that brought about 1/2" to the coast today is visible in this image. The next big storm that is sucking in Hawaii moisture is a couple of days out, but shows its vigor.


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## Honey-4-All

If its coming out of Hawaii we out to get a good one... Todays was nice.... More in the yards towards the coast than the valley this round. Would be nice if we got 3-5 inches over 3 or 4 days.


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