# Water shortage for almonds



## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Dry years*

JJB

Yes one more dry winter will put the hurt on. Right now demand will stay the same. The almonds are too profitable and too much investment p/a to develop. All else will be abandoned first. The peripheral canal project would provide relief too. Most vulnerable are the big westside plantings where they must receive a certain amount of surface water to prevent salt degradation. The well water is too deep and too salty to use alone. The big boys are really pushing for the new canal. The small nut size may also be due to consecutive years of heavy crops. Doesn't seem to me that demand for bees is set to diminish YET.


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## high rate of speed (Jan 4, 2008)

Yes but it doesnt take much to change that demand for nuts or bees,everything has its cycle.


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Supply & demand*

Change happens doesn't it. On the supply side too when Mexico moves in demand may be the same but price of bees will be down. Fun!


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## high rate of speed (Jan 4, 2008)

it will change before that.Once acres start comin out,bess will be readily availiable,then sit back and whatch the price gouging.


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## cow pollinater (Dec 5, 2007)

Those of us with a little common sense find it really easy to say that water is the lifeblood of agriculture and therefore more water needs to stay with the crops. Simple enough right?
The sad, sad reality of it is that the majority of the people that make decisions around here think that agriculture is a thing of the past in the american economy and that we should import our food supply and spend our resources on building technology and more homes. Sooner or later they will probably get their way and we'll all be screwed. Not that I want this thread moved to tailgaiter, but look at the situation we are in with oil...Do we really want to do that to our food supply as well???


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Acres comin out*

Don't see too many right now. Some old orchards in No Cal, Perhaps some westside if 2009 is dry. Forecasts based on planted acreage show 40-50000 acres additional coming in annually for the next three years. They are a great export product with growing demand. BD and everyone else is selling the living daylights out of them. What they really need is a one year carryover. ( 1 billion lbs. ) to stabilize their supply and consequently price. They are far from this goal right now. I don't think anyone will pull almonds unless production or price is so low its unprofitable.


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Almonds*

If you are growing almonds and have developed a good or better production record; if you are borrowing money based on future production, you probably have CROP INSURANCE. The greatest benefit occurs when a series of good years is followed by a particularly bad year, as is intended. .


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## JHJR (May 22, 2007)

*The price is bad already.*

Current market price for california variety's is $1.30 if your lucky. With current input costs, you better be cranking some tonnage at that price.


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Costs*

JHJR:

Just curious; what are the approximate rough roundabout cultural costs, apart from capitalization? I know the growers are hanging on to their wallet as tight as they can. Can you share some realistic numbers on this?


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## JHJR (May 22, 2007)

*Costs*

Costs have quadrupled in the past three years. Every grower does it different. Just like beeks. Potash has gone from $275/ton to $1000/ton, (current price) Fert and bees will cost almost a cool grand an acre next year.(that is if you want high,quality tonnage). Cultural costs are well over $2000. If somebody says else, they aint breaking a ton/acre. Next year is looking tough.


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Price*

JHJR

Please correct me if I'm wrong: There is a price that is being paid but coops and big handlers I think set prices in pools through the year, in other words 4 quarters to the year, four pools each of which is paid out depending on the market during that marketing period. So right now a record crop is cruising down the pipeline no problem. Price is low. But if we have some early morning temps in the low 20s say Feb 15 the price will change dramatically. During a big harvest the price is generally at a low point.


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Fertilizer*

Wow! $700 acre for fertilizer!


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## alpha6 (May 12, 2008)

*Calif long-range weather forcasts*

Here is a pretty good site that claims to be 88% accurate in forecasting the weather. You can plug in any state and then it lets you break it down by county. 

http://www.dryday.com/state/California

other states go here

http://www.dryday.com/


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## jjgbee (Oct 12, 2006)

*Water at $900.00 per acre foot*

$900.00 per A/F is now being paid for farm water. I beleive almonds use 4 a/f a year. $3600.00 for water, $1000.00 for fertilizer and $2000.00 for bees and other. At what point will growers cut back to tree survival only. In San Diego county alcavado growers are cutting 60% of their trees off at the stump, hoping that there will be water in the future when the trees grow back. Previously water was $100.00 per a/f


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## florida pollinator (Jul 31, 2006)

The costs for almond growers have gone up for sure, but the picture painted, try's to make it as if it's the high cost of bees that's making it hard for the high profits that they have enjoyed, to continue.
Water, fuel and fertilizer are the big costs. I live in the heart of Phosphate mining production(i.e. fertilizer base) for Florida. The largest mining company,Mosaic, an off branch and former named Cargil mining,of the Cargil foods family, posted a record profit last quarter, I don't know many beekeepers posting those records.
And I haven't heard or seen anyone from Exxon Mobil or Mosaic saying they may not sell as much fertilizer or sell as much fuel and we may have to take less money this year because the poor almond growers are not making as much profit.
I've heard it from a half dozen guys ,whom had bees in Kali this year that prices for bees may not be good ,the almond growers are having a hard time, I hope a few guys will look outside the box when setting prices .


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## high rate of speed (Jan 4, 2008)

florida pollinator said:


> The costs for almond growers have gone up
> And I haven't heard or seen anyone from Exxon Mobil or Mosaic saying they may not sell as much fertilizer or sell as much fuel and we may have to take less money this year because the poor almond growers are not making as much profit.
> I've heard it from a half dozen guys ,whom had bees in Kali this year that prices for bees may not be good ,the almond growers are having a hard time, I hope a few guys will look outside the box when setting prices .


With a weaker dollar prices will hold.But that is starting to change,I wish the almond growers were struggling as much as the commercial keeper.This chit chat isnt doing the market any good as well.


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## jjgbee (Oct 12, 2006)

The point I was trying to make with this thread was; With no water, some almonds will be pulled out of production and given only enough water to keep the trees alive. This would result in less acerage that needs pollination. Dept. of Water Resources will issue their allotment forcast for next year around Oct 15. Right now they are forcasting 10% of normal allocation will be available. This condition only affects acerage south of the Delta, Sacramento, but that is still 1/2 of the state.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

jjgbee said:


> This condition only affects acerage south of the Delta, Sacramento, but that is still 1/2 of the state.


Only about 17% of the almonds are in the north state, above Sacramento.


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## loggermike (Jul 23, 2000)

From:

http://www.bluediamond.com/news/2008JulyPresRpt.html


With respect to water, the current drought, coupled with court decisions concerning endangered species has brought forth concerns for thousands of acres of farmland on the west side of both the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys.

In the mix of land in jeopardy are over 250,000 acres of almonds: 50,000 acres in the north, and over 200,000 in the south. At this point, roughly 20% of these acres are being negatively affected by water shortage and stress. This percentage could have been much higher if large tracks of row crop ground had not been fallowed in order to transfer water to permanent crops such as almonds.
The affected acres described above will yield lighter kernels for the 2008 crop and a much lighter bud set for 2009. If the drought and pumping constraints continue, we could see reduction in future almond production projections, leading to a much tighter supply picture. The result of this could be turbulent prices and lost consumption. We will do all we can to avoid such circumstances and to perform in the best interest of our growers and the industry.


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Lowered production*

With the poor outlook on the westside you would think that growers would cut back on bees or as jgbee mentioned cut trees but they won't because all during these good years they've been buying CROP INSURANCE and establishing production records. To collect when the bad year comes they must perform all normal cultural practices, including 2 colonies per acre and carry through to the end of the season harvest, whatever that may be. This system benefits the beekeeper too by providing stability in demand.


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## loggermike (Jul 23, 2000)

Thats right . So while we should be aware of the growers problems, they need to know that keeping bees alive aint no picnic either, and our costs have also skyrocketed.


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Costs*

And then of course the funny thing is that for instance pollination fees or almond meat prices are not affected directly by cost of production but by that old song and dance, SUPPLY and DEMAND. Right now almond production costs are escalating yet hardshells are selling (?) at $1.30 lb., considered a low price these days.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

Tom G. Laury said:


> but they won't because all during these good years they've been buying CROP INSURANCE and establishing production records..


This does not apply too ALL.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

loggermike said:


> they need to know that keeping bees alive aint no picnic either, and our costs have also skyrocketed.


Aw, come on Mike, the bees do all the work. LOL


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## Tom G. Laury (May 24, 2008)

*Keith*

Hi 

maybe not ALL but anybody with average or better crops or anybody with financing. Seems like a good thing right now.


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