# Are the good times about over with?



## Honey-4-All (Dec 19, 2008)

1. Honey prices. ? 
2. Reports of bees crashing like in 05-07 ?  
3. Almond prices to the growers at harvest in August 2015 as high as $4.90 a pound. By January 2016 they are heading like the rest of the world commodities falling to $2.20-2.40 per pound on the spot market.   

If they continue to hover around $2.00 will the $180-$200 pollination fees be sustainable?

Time to tighten belts before :bus?


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## JRG13 (May 11, 2012)

Just with like everything big ag... when it's good everyone jumps on the bandwagon til prices plummet then they all scratch their heads and can't figure out what went wrong....


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## jfmcree (Mar 10, 2014)

Capitalism in action!


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## Tenbears (May 15, 2012)

jfmcree said:


> Capitalism in action!


Would you prefer the alternative?


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## JohnBruceLeonard (Jul 7, 2015)

Tenbears said:


> Would you prefer the alternative?


That depends. What is the alternative?


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## jkola404 (Jan 8, 2008)

From NPR yesterday

http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2016/01/27/463877351/the-price-of-almonds-may-have-met-a-slippery-slope


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## jim lyon (Feb 19, 2006)

Commodity prices have always been cyclical and currently it's pretty much all commodities. The wise beekeeper didn't get heavily leveraged and plow every nickel back into their outfit. The gloomy theme of Phil's post reminded me of a colorful and sage old gentleman in my hometown who like to say that "it's always darkest.....just before it goes completely black". . Come on folks, don't worry, be happy.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

jim lyon said:


> Commodity prices have always been cyclical and currently it's pretty much all commodities.


Yeah, I'm really waiting for sugar to slip, but it hasn't happen yet.


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## grozzie2 (Jun 3, 2011)

Keith Jarrett said:


> Yeah, I'm really waiting for sugar to slip, but it hasn't happen yet.


Isn't that one of the ones that has pricing controls in place in the US?


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## beeware10 (Jul 25, 2010)

as beekeepers we were able to get by before the almond boom. I have expected markets to slip with todays world economy. the medium size beekeeper may be better off as they are less dependent on almonds and not having to wholesale their crop, lower overhead,etc. the family business can find niche markets such as marketing, selling nucs, cut comb, etc. as said times may be changing. try to remain flexible.


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## jim lyon (Feb 19, 2006)

Keith Jarrett said:


> Yeah, I'm really waiting for sugar to slip, but it hasn't happen yet.


Checked corn syrup prices lately? On a weaker corn market, they all (all 3 of them) went up lockstep from .21 to .27 at the first of the year, how is that not collusion?


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## D Coates (Jan 6, 2006)

jim lyon said:


> Commodity prices have always been cyclical and currently it's pretty much all commodities. The wise beekeeper didn't get heavily leveraged and plow every nickel back into their outfit. The gloomy theme of Phil's post reminded me of a colorful and sage old gentleman in my hometown who like to say that "it's always darkest.....just before it goes completely black". . Come on folks, don't worry, be happy.


Amen. You can always find doom and gloom. It flows like honey in a hot house. Good news? Flows like honey from a freezer. Many like to look at the past as the best times. Invariably because they know how it turned out.


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## johno (Dec 4, 2011)

I do not think you can blame this problem on capitalism, which is a word coined by Karl Marx if I remember correctly. I prefer the term free markets if you can find them. We now have mostly Govt controlled free markets which is an oxymoron because once controlled is no longer free. So we have come out of a great recession world wide and have gone into a great depression world wide with not enough money in the world to pay Govs debts. So I think we are tending into a deflationary cycle as their is less and less money chasing more and more products, so I think we will be going into survival mode just now and where we could end up nobody knows. IMHO just to brighten your day.
Johno


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## rookie2531 (Jul 28, 2014)

Like I always say, these are the good times, we just don't know it yet.


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## WLeeH (Jan 16, 2015)

What goes up must come down. Three years ago no one would have guessed that oil would be selling for less than $30.00 a barrel in 2016. So honey is down now, and that's fine, but like oil it keeps as long as you have a place to store it. The price will creep back up, it won't stay down forever.


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## Honey-4-All (Dec 19, 2008)

The gist of my post was not to preach doom and gloom and the imminent and complete end of the "bee world." Anyone here would be hard pressed to find any one pro B than myself. 

Anyone who has paid attention in history class should certainly have observe that everything is cyclical. This obviously includes beekeeping. 

My point was that it might be time to tighten near term large investments in the "bee world" as the ROI in the foreseeable future might not be as rosy as the past few years have been.

I was wondering if anyone else thinks the current bee "cycle" might be on a downward trend at this point in time with very few indicators of a positive turn around any time soon. 

????


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## Rader Sidetrack (Nov 30, 2011)

johno said:


> I do not think you can blame this problem on capitalism, which is a word coined by Karl Marx if I remember correctly.


No worries about Karl Marx. 

Adam Smith, born in 1723, almost 100 years before Karl Marx, is credited with being the "founding father" of capitalism. Adam Smith's best known book, "An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations" was published in 1776.

More on Adam Smith here: http://www.vision.org/visionmedia/biography-adam-smith/868.aspx


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## Brian Suchan (Apr 6, 2005)

beeware10 said:


> as beekeepers we were able to get by before the almond boom. I have expected markets to slip with todays world economy. the medium size beekeeper may be better off as they are less dependent on almonds and not having to wholesale their crop, lower overhead,etc. the family business can find niche markets such as marketing, selling nucs, cut comb, etc. as said times may be changing. try to remain flexible.


Both thumbs up to you!! I agree the bee industry would be somewhat better off without them. It would force some Beeks to 
Actually be beekeepers.


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## jean-marc (Jan 13, 2005)

As a person without a dog in this fight growers will continue paying. They cannot go without bees if they want the crop or the crop insurance. We all know it costs real money to keep bees alive and well. With falling honey prices it will be tough to supply good bees with lower incomes. Inputs are not going down.

Jean-Marc


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## RDY-B (May 20, 2007)

slight hiccup in the market--china loves almonds--they are in a period of adjustment-
embargoes lifted against iran--they love almonds--slight adjustments occur from time to time-
supply and demand runs the almond market--this has morphed out of unstable international stock
market--she will ship right--load the wagon and never mind if the horse is blind----RDY-B


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## JSL (Sep 22, 2007)

RDY-B said:


> load the wagon and never mind if the horse is blind----RDY-B


I like this one!


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## JWChesnut (Jul 31, 2013)

The NPR report attributes weakening to additional acreage coming on market. Much of the "boom" planting in the southern valley is nowhere near "first nut". Carrot and Onion fields in the Arvin area are being planted to almonds this spring. This was true in the Woodland area as well -- where tomato ground is still being converted. The real oversupply is still a couple of years out -- and by that time, demand softening (driven by the Chinese financial crisis) will likely be over.


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## Bombus_perplexus (Nov 17, 2015)

WLeeH said:


> What goes up must come down. Three years ago no one would have guessed that oil would be selling for less than $30.00 a barrel in 2016. So honey is down now, and that's fine, but like oil it keeps as long as you have a place to store it. The price will creep back up, it won't stay down forever.


Totally right. Basic supply and demand. Hold the honey as long as you can afford to and the lack of supply will drive prices back up. That only issue that slows that down is the large commercial guys that don't rely on honey profits. Many of them don't care about the current price of honey because, to them, its just a bonus. That and we just need to keep that watered down International honey out as much as we can.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

Bombus_perplexus said:


> . That only issue that slows that down is the large commercial guys that don't rely on honey profits. .


That's interesting.


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## JRG13 (May 11, 2012)

And we have to keep that imported stuff out because we produce enough to cover the domestic market ourselves.....


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## Honey-4-All (Dec 19, 2008)

More reports of Almond prices tanking. California varieties scrapping around 2 bucks with the trend still heading south. Had two people tell me yesterday that the demand in China is getting bad enough where nuts are being "trucked" back from China. 

At two bucks, 20 thousand an acre for land, 150 thousand dollar wells wrapped in 200 dollar bees I for the life of me am having a hard time chewing the economics of the current economic forecast of almond production into a fine enough consistency where one can swallow it without chocking to death.

Any banker willing to loan more than a buck to any grower looking to make a killing on nuts with the current stats has got to be a former Fannie Mae employee.


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## irwin harlton (Jan 7, 2005)

you worry too much, its only money, you can't take it with you when you go, you can't eat it, every gov't is printing more of it and spending more of it every day............... now honey and almonds you can eat, why worry , bee happy


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## Adam Foster Collins (Nov 4, 2009)

Then there's this story from NPR yesterday

With Bees In Trouble, Almond Farmers Try Trees That Don't Need 'Em.


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## RAK (May 2, 2010)

The independence still requires bees. The cost of planting independence is way too high. Cheaper to pay 200 a hive for 2 hives an acre than plant independence and pay for .5 hives an acre. Face the facts. Independence is old news and does not bring in as much as non pareil.


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

Honey-4-All said:


> 1. Honey prices. ?
> 2. Reports of bees crashing like in 05-07 ?
> 3. Almond prices to the growers at harvest in August 2015 as high as $4.90 a pound. By January 2016 they are heading like the rest of the world commodities falling to $2.20-2.40 per pound on the spot market.
> 
> ...


Time for you to get out.


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## Sunday Farmer (Nov 13, 2013)

Will anyone here really not have a profitable business if all of a sudden if there weren't almonds?


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## HarryVanderpool (Apr 11, 2005)

Sunday Farmer said:


> Will anyone here really not have a profitable business if all of a sudden if there weren't almonds?


Of course not.
It's been a long time, but I still enjoy drawing electrical schematics....


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## jim lyon (Feb 19, 2006)

Sunday Farmer said:


> Will anyone here really not have a profitable business if all of a sudden if there weren't almonds?


I kept bees commercially for 25 years before I ever saw my first dollar from any type of pollination. We survived and did so with ridiculously low honey prices at times. Industry wide, however, it would be a real shock to more recent startups that know no other way and don't have access to good honey production areas.


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## BigBlackBirds (Aug 26, 2011)

jim lyon said:


> I kept bees commercially for 25 years before I ever saw my first dollar from any type of pollination. We survived and did so with ridiculously low honey prices at times. Industry wide, however, it would be a real shock to more recent startups that know no other way and don't have access to good honey production areas.


Yep, wasn't probably more than 15 years ago that bulk honey was only 35 cents a pound. Seems like there was about 2cents difference between white and light amber.


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

BBB, your numbers are either quite local or quite a bit off. Maybe 30 years ago, but not 15.


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## johnbeejohn (Jun 30, 2013)

if almond growers are not wanting to pay high price for pollination what effect will this have on package and nuc prices on the west coast most guys might not be so willing to sell there hives at the end of almonds 
would this be the right thinking ?


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## Woodside (Aug 10, 2010)

johnbeejohn said:


> if almond growers are not wanting to pay high price for pollination what effect will this have on package and nuc prices on the west coast most guys might not be so willing to sell there hives at the end of almonds
> would this be the right thinking ?


From what I understand.. the $200/hive is a mere drop in their bucket. Those guys have $50k initially setting up each acre of trees and large operating expenses each year.


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## jean-marc (Jan 13, 2005)

Johnbeejohn, if almonds revenues go down, then businesses have to make up the shortfall. Sell bees is the answer. If honey prices are low then commercial guys will shy away, but there is the hobbyist market.

Jean-Marc


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