# Calculating Swarming dates



## MattDavey (Dec 16, 2011)

He also replied with this.



BernhardHeuvel said:


> Well, as I wrote in my post above. It is a model that I use to forecast what is going on and it works pretty well for me. Means, I find in the hives what I forecast. Not a 100 % the same, but as you said: nothing is 100 % dealing with animals. Especially with bees.
> 
> 
> Well, a very well known bee scientist, Josef Bretschko found out that correlation. He studied it in detail for decades and even wrote in a book about it. Two other bee scientists, Bergmann&Bergmann continued his work and verfied what he has found in their own studies. They even were able to develop a formula, which is the one I use in my calculations.
> ...


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## Mr.Beeman (May 19, 2012)

Wow.... very time consuming data collection.

All I know is that the truck and gear is ready for swarm calls by May 1st.


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## Adrian Quiney WI (Sep 14, 2007)

On a related note. In one of the old bee masters books that Michael Bush promotes (perhaps Jay Smith?) the author says that swarm cells will be broken down by the bees if you add open brood to a hive that has started them. Taking the time to understand this is valuable. The difficulty I encountered as a new beekeeper was that the bees population explodes so quickly in the spring.
Matt thanks - food for thought.


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## BernhardHeuvel (Mar 13, 2013)

OpenOffice:
http://www.immenfreunde.de/docs/HiveDevelopment.ods

Excel:
http://www.immenfreunde.de/docs/HiveDevelopment.xls

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0800rzlrzxd83u6/HiveDevelopment.xls


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## MattDavey (Dec 16, 2011)

Thanks Bernhardt. 

Fantastic work, great graphs too.


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## BernhardHeuvel (Mar 13, 2013)

David LaFerney said:


> I've never seen it quantified like that though. *I assume that you feel that is accurate?


Well, it has been found by a very well known (at least in German speaking countries) bee scientist, Josef Bretschko, who has had a good reputation among beekeepers here. His followers, Bergmann&Bergmann verified it and put up the formula. I just put up a spreadsheet and forecasted the development of the hives with the help of the weather forecast (which of course is somewhat limited).

From what I observed, the calculations really helps understanding what is going on in the hives and what is coming next. It really helps to forecast the next two weeks and with some local climate data, the next months.

Of course there are presumptions, which are: queen has enough comb to lay eggs in, bees have enough to feed on (pollen and nectar), no robbing, queen is OK and so on. So if you really care for your bees and look after the above beekeeping basics, you really can forecast what is going on. At least I did.

The authors Bretschko, Bergmann&Bergmann used the calculation for Spring development only. But I found out, that this is true all summer and autumn, too. But in summer the incoming nectar and pollen and the swarming fever reduces the egg laying significantly. Of course. And mathematically it has, because otherwise the colony would explode in numbers.




David LaFerney said:


> Aside from swarming issues this data should give some insight about what is going on it the hives


Exactly. I rarely use it for swarm prevention, because my swarm prevention is the early removal of the old queen which is very effective. But I use the calculation to decide when to super the first time. I just wait until the numbers of capped brood cells is about one box of comb worth. One comb of brood produces four combs of bees. And with a box full of capped bees, the emerging bees will readily take the super given.

The calculations also allows for decisions when to make splits or when to combine. What is the latest date to make splits - and so on. When to treat: I look for lots of open brood at day 8, little capped brood. So mites most probably are outside the cells in great numbers where I can reach them with the treatments.

It also helps identifying when something's wrong. If you calculate a certain state of the colony and it can't be found in reality, I look for what is wrong with the colony.

I don't think the spreadsheet or formula will revolutionize beekeeping. Since if you have a bigger number of hives, you simply compare between the hives to find failing colonies. Or you simply have a look into the hives what is going on. Experience in beekeeping over a long time also greatly reduces the need for such calculations, because you sort of get a sense what to do, when to do.

But I find it a great tool to learn with.

On a bigger scale one probably will understand the deep connection between the colony and the landscape or local climate, which might be max daily temperature as the connecting factor. Bees have to tune their actions to nature, to the landscape somehow. In order to be ready when the flow hits or winter sets in. Watching the temperature and hive development for some time now, I reckon there is something into this thing. Worth looking at closer and maybe you want to jump in and try yourself. The more people observing it, the more eyes, the more results. The only thing to do, is to estimate the number of brood cells and bees in winter right before they start off with brooding. And of course you have to track daily temperatures. I use the data of a weather observatory nearby that is published in the internet. So I put in the data on a weekly basis.


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## merince (Jul 19, 2011)

BernhardHeuvel, this is really interesting!

One question - what is the amount of capped brood cells equivalent to a full box? Specifically, at what number of capped brood cells do you add a super and what size super?



BernhardHeuvel said:


> I just wait until the numbers of capped brood cells is about one box of comb worth. One comb of brood produces four combs of bees. And with a box full of capped bees, the emerging bees will readily take the super given.


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## MattDavey (Dec 16, 2011)

Bernhard, 

I have put my local Temperatures in the spreadsheet since May and I am NOT seeing corresponding results in my hives.

Here is the spreadsheet with my local temperatures: http://daveybees.wikidot.com/local--files/files/HiveDevelopmentGippsland.xls

(It has been a very mild winter here!)

In the last two months I have seen about a doubling of the Hive populations and the amount of brood. But the calculations don't show that:


Date`````` | Brood` | Hive | Ratio
------------------------------------
08/15/2013 | 22219 | 37869 | 59% 
10/15/2013 | 31390 | 49026 | 64%	


In fact the calculations suggest if I started with 1000 bees in May I would still be at 49000 bees by now!
I managed to overwinter a 4 frame Nuc, but they are no where near the same size as my other hives.

Also, the calculations are suggesting that the Uncapped Brood to Nurse bee ratio has been staying around 1/3. So three times the numbers of Nurse bees to uncapped brood.


The amount of brood being produced in my hives at the moment seems more to do with the amount of fresh pollen that is coming in (and possibly increasing daylight) rather than temperature.

I will continue to monitor and plug in the temperatures until we start seeing swarms locally.


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## charles adams (Jul 16, 2011)

Mr.Beeman said:


> Wow.... very time consuming data collection.
> 
> All I know is that the truck and gear is ready for swarm calls by May 1st.


I'm with you beeman except I have the gear in by March .


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## Swarm_King (Mar 13, 2014)

Hi Bernard I am a NJ Beekeeper who used to swarm off all his hives until I used Walter Wright's technique known as checker boarding. Not that swarms do not have their place. It is just that all my great honey producers flew off at the wrong time previous to this. So, posting a bloom date is an essential basic record for people. I can't begin to relate how simply right Walt is about this method. To carry this further I would begin be telling you another couple of ideas, which could be elevated to essential, basic information. That would be swarm dates according to your area, and the idea that bloom dates have been shown to be related to grow degree days in any given area. It is up to the beekeeper to make this concept a location specific for optimum use as part of hive management regimen to facilitate swarm prevention. Location specific means somehow record those highs and lows for the day and then get thee a notebook and start recording grow degree days. Walt and likewise several NJ Beekeepers say watch for a certain type plant to bloom. Well I watched my red bud maples and sure enough I did my procedures last year in concert with my grow degree days and swarm dates from the previous dates and then did my checker boarding as best I could with no honey or very little. Walt related to me that I would certainly benefit from a third brood box of honey. Never mind honey supers, I put 1 medium on with drawn honey comb. Fact: Honey bees know the difference between brood comb wax and honey comb wax. I was very happy to see that none of my hives violated the honey storage area (honey done). I owe Walt a complete report of my adventure with checker boarding. The adventure includes bloom dates, swarm dates, available brood box volume, number of hive with a pure checker board procedure, and number with a modified checker board procedure, number using a Mike Palmer brood nest expansion technique, a Mike Palmer split, and those that were split the old fashion way. 

I would like to ask if people could help me test my Grow Degree Day hypothesis because it simplifies the task of fudging swarm date shift. But it looks like good material already exits. The swarm shift shifts with the honey flow/bloom date shift. It is very important that people get their highs and low temperature and then calculate grow degree days. Please check the truthfulness of the calculation by verification specific to your location. Look up the grow degree days that are consistent with the bloom date. Measure them for your specific location.

There are lots of variables involved though. The bees are really good at knowing what they need for a living space. If they think they are going to out-grow their hotel, well you know the story-they'll check out and fly away. I guess you can surmise what I am about here. This bloom date repository is a wonderful thing. We can use it as an essential tool. I would like to test my hypothesis about checker boarding and state that I believe it is timed to honey flow. We know it is a population dynamic thing, so all sorts of things like cluster size, hive home quality, and so on influence. But, Checker boarding is as Walt says a very simple thing. As we break down what Walt says and apply the light bulb goes on. A door opens to shine light on a sustainable beekeeping-swarm prevention technique, and a triple delightful boat load of more honey than ever. I had 13 hives that produced 838 packaged pounds of honey, and also new wax for about 14 full sized brood boxes and totally filled them up with honey. I would cycle out old wax in them boxes that had old black wax and allow the bees new pearly white wax. My results are great. Now to explain the story. I will check your links above and see if the variables are the same.


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