# Predictions 2014



## grozzie2 (Jun 3, 2011)

It'll be a bonanza for some, a bust for others. Gold rush mentality will prevail.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

RAK, I was wondering when this topic was going to come up...... ya know I sell alot of sub & talk with alot of keepers & the one thing I hear lately from them is " boy the bees sure look alot better than they did last year at this time". So my GUESS is..... noop not going there... I've been wrong so many times I've gave up predicting the almonds.

PS this week almond prices nons & pollinators NORTH of $3.00 lb


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## Chip Euliss (Sep 2, 2010)

Yep, you never know but it's good not to let your guard down. I just finished with mite treatments but my loads were much lower than in the past. Now, it's feed, feed, feed!! Rising value of almonds is always a good sign:applause:



Keith Jarrett said:


> RAK, I was wondering when this topic was going to come up...... ya know I sell alot of sub & talk with alot of keepers & the one thing I hear lately from them is " boy the bees sure look alot better than they did last year at this time". So my GUESS is..... noop not going there... I've been wrong so many times I've gave up predicting the almonds.
> 
> PS this week almond prices nons & pollinators NORTH of $3.00 lb


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## swarm_trapper (Jun 19, 2003)

Honestly around here and the guys that come to FL i have heard the opposite. Lots of bees tanking in the Dakotas as the honey is getting pulled. Had three calls this past week for bees that have already been sold. Guess we will just have to wait and see. Ya never know whats talk and whats not lol


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## jimsteelejr (Sep 21, 2012)

The managed bees may be in trouble but the feral bees are going nuts. We can have all the bees that we want if we just come and get them. I think Florida has the worst constructed houses in the world--Knot holes in the siding, Sofits that have gaps, holes in the wall that the cable guy drilled and did not seal. We have seen it all this week.Yesterday we took a big hive off of a window-built right out in the open. No bee shortage here.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

swarm_trapper said:


> Honestly around here and the guys that come to FL i have heard the opposite. Lots of bees tanking in the Dakotas


I'm sorry Nick, I was referring to the folks that fed Nutra Bee.... 

Couldn't let that one get by.


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## Shouse (Jul 1, 2010)

There is a Broker advertising in The ABJ. Offering $180.00 per hive to beekeepers. 
My discussions with Growers in August, are that they expect to pay substantially less.


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## loggermike (Jul 23, 2000)

Now why would they think that? any idea what their reasoning is?

If they meant $200 for a 3 framer like some of them paid for , well I'd agree..

" boy the bees sure look alot better than they did last year at this time"
Thats true in our case too.


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## LSPender (Nov 16, 2004)

The value of our bees is high to the grower, just asked them to go without the bees.

One of my main concerns is the unknown factor, we can not always predict what the hives will look like in Feburary.

Currently the price should be around $180 for an 8 frame hive with a 5 to 7 dollar bonus for each additional frame up to 12.

Just remember our costs are continually rising and we need to be profitable to stay in business.


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## Trevor Mansell (Jan 16, 2005)

Im hearing a big factor in Ca, is the water. In some areas the growers cant get any. I don't know how many will be pushing up old trees and reseting ,I still cant see the demand falling that much. Feb is close but it is still a long way off.


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## HarryVanderpool (Apr 11, 2005)

This year will be the 9th year with the same grower. (No broker)
My grower treats me VERY GOOD. Every year he clears out a lane in his barn for me and gives me a key.
He has a Polaris Ranger that is mine for the entire time I am there.
Last year, while I was down working the bees, I told him that I had a huge bottle order at Mann Lake. While he was on business nearby, he picked up the order and brought it to the ranch.
My grower, that I want to keep, and I have an agreement not to gouge.
We want to continue with the concept that we are working together, NOT against each other.
If the price went from $150.00 to $200.00 I would expect to raise my price maybe $15.00 - $20.00.
Then if it stayed at $200.00 maybe another $10.00 - $15.00 the next year etc.....
But the idea of calling him and demanding a spike to $200.00 or else?!!
Not going to happen.
My grower has become a personal friend of mine and my family.

I really enjoy following along with the annual "Callifornia gold fever" that pops up every year at this time. But I enjoy it for entertainment value only.
I am not going to stab my grower in the back after years of his loyalty to our company.
Do what you want; I just wanted to inject a different perspective.


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## LSPender (Nov 16, 2004)

Harry, why do you say a price increase is a GOUGE, we are not the ones printing money so fast that the inflation pressures are beating on our companies., From fuel to labor to insurance I have yet to see any of our expenses go down, nor have I seen the queen attrition rates go down either. in fact we where more profitable when prices were $ 45 per hive. I live and work in a place called reality , I have to make decisions based on facts, not what I want them to be, calling a price increase a gouge is not correct.

The question I would ask, what is the grower doing with the additional profit he makes because he is paying 30 to 40 dollars per acre less than other growers and sells for the same amount. Has he ever offered a bonus on production? 500 aces X 40 = $ 20,000 , just a simple example.

But also in a capitalistic economic system you do have the right to charge what you want. Enjoy


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## RAK (May 2, 2010)

Keith Jarrett said:


> RAK, I was wondering when this topic was going to come up.....



Keith, It's about time someone started this one.


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## RAK (May 2, 2010)

I'm also hearing lots of talk on the water issue. I pollinate Stockton area and its tough with the water down there. I tell my growers that they can have all the water the want... We get way too much of it up here. Its pouring as I type.


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## jim lyon (Feb 19, 2006)

The water issue is going to limit expansion of the California almond industry before a shortage of bees does. My WAG on how things will shake out this year? Good bees will bring 150+( just like last year) while those peddling 3 combers will be SOL.


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## dback (Jan 8, 2012)

A "MAJOR" growers contract was just released.........$150.00 for eight frames plus bonus with 'full' inspection. Every grower in the valley will know about it in no time.


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## Trevor Mansell (Jan 16, 2005)

I heard a "MAJOR" grower was offering 175.00 plus bonus with inspection . Let the rumors begin.


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## dback (Jan 8, 2012)

There was no "heard" or "rumor" in my post. The contract is laying here on my desk.


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## Almondralf (Jun 20, 2011)

Here is what Joe Traynor wrote in his Beekeeper Newsletter – July 23, 2013: http://www.beesource.com/point-of-v...newsletter/beekeeper-newsletter-july-23-2013/ 

" The total 2014 bee supply for almonds will be greater than in 2013 due to better moisture conditions in the plains states and to better varroa control (the new Apivar strips are doing a good job). Don’t look for a repeat of the 2013 bee shortage – an excess of almond bees is more likely. Beekeepers that are making lots of divides in anticipation of another bee shortage next year may wish they hadn’t."


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## Shouse (Jul 1, 2010)

Very good point Almonddralf.


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## JRG13 (May 11, 2012)

With the water, we won't know for a few months, hopefully we get some....


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## MNbees (May 27, 2013)

The water issue seems to be huge at this point, but then on the other hand do we really think that the California Almond Board wouldn't figure something out to get some water to the orchards in the west? Seems wild that they would let them dry up, and who knows maybe some rain will fall.

Seems like the prices will be the same as last year from what i am hearing. 
I doubt there will be a surplus of bees.

Hey harry, do you haul your bees down there on that silly tractor thing, must take for ever


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## jim lyon (Feb 19, 2006)

The amount of water in (or to a large degree) flowing through California is a finite amount in any given year. About 5 years ago they did run out and many orchards on the west side simply went without water. Yet there is still talk of Almond acreage expansion. A harbinger of things to come?
Joe Traynor is a pretty astute observer but his July comments, while grounded in facts, is still just speculation. Pretty much what is going on here as well I guess.


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## loggermike (Jul 23, 2000)

When the drought in Ca finally breaks, it will be with heavy snow, rain, flooding and mudslides(like always). 
If the environmentalists allow, some of this water will actually be stored away for future use.

An over supply of hives? Not sure about that, given the short honey crop this year. Short crop often means poor bees.I have heard of exploding mite problems in some large outfits too. That is definitely a bad omen.


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## matt1954 (Sep 8, 2010)

speculation runs the gamut as it does every year it seems. Wait and see, I say, wait and see......


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## JWChesnut (Jul 31, 2013)

The "Indepedence" self-fertile almond is being planted as quickly as grafted whips become available. Over the tree replacement cycle, the pollinator demand is going to collapse. The conversion is happening with every almond grower I have spoken with, some experimentally, some expansion, some wholesale replacement.


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## RAK (May 2, 2010)

From what I have heard the tree requires .5 to 1 hive per acre instead of 2 hives.


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## JWChesnut (Jul 31, 2013)

That's correct. Independence is being promoted as self-fertile, not self-pollinated. You still need a reduced cohort of bees to move pollen from the anthers to the stigma of the flowers, but not move pollen from a couple of rows away. I understand: 1 hive / 2 acre.

The key point is Independence is going to shift the supply/demand of pollinators toward a bee surplus just when the "gold rush" operators are tooling up for the easy money.

Independence has been in the field 10 years, so is relatively well proven. It's only in the last 2-3 years that the plantings of the grafts have really kicked into high gear.


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## Trevor Mansell (Jan 16, 2005)

Any effects the Independence will have will be 10 to 20 years from now. And allot of growers wont use the Independence ,a least the ones that I talked to . The nut is smaller and weighs less. The need for bees will be there for a very long time. Im more worried with all the crying from beekeepers that are losing bees ,the Govt will open the borders to Canadian or Mexican operations.


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## LSPender (Nov 16, 2004)

Been talked about for a long time, ask the grower how the independence tree is to harvest? 
They have also been proven to work better with bees


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## BlueDiamond (Apr 8, 2011)

The Long Range Computer Forecast for California is for a dry October, wet November, then dry Dec - Feb. So a third consecutive year of drought is a possibility for California's Central Valley, although in some years March and April can be very wet.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...model-forecast-through-february-2014/17586203


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## JRG13 (May 11, 2012)

I've heard independence has quality issues and you still need bees to set a decent crop, I believe it will take some pressure off the 'gold rush' but with almonds expanding every year it balances out.


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## Honey-4-All (Dec 19, 2008)

Regarding the Independence. etc....... Wise growers will not all jump on board without a little evaluation. To give an example we planted some of the new USDA "Winters" variety when they came out to test them. The production is phenomenal... The nuts look like nonpareils but as one of my help commented a few weeks back when we were harvesting..... "They taste bland." (cleaned up language) This doesn't even bring up the shaking issues we encounter with them some years. Last year they stuck like someone put a glue gun squirt on every nut. We spent more "stick" time than counting the money time for sure. There is also the issue of how the market will react to them. That's a little early to speculate on yet. A half mile down the road another 160 acres is going in this winter. For the growers "sitting on water" like we are the price of almonds is Nuts. About 10 miles from me a 1100 acre place with 5 or so year old trees just sold for nearly 25 million. Anyone investing that much is not likely to worry about a few buck for bees when the nuts are over $3.00.


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## Matt Beekman (Dec 15, 2007)

Amen!


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