# What is the latest on the demand for bees in the almonds this year?



## MNbees (May 27, 2013)

Is there less hives needed this year? Prices? Has there been much rain?
Maybe things will change when all the bees come out of the cellars? Will the bees crashing make a higher price in the end?

I know nothing. tell me what you know.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

MNbees said:


> I know nothing. tell me what you know.


How did Shultzie say it in Hogan's Hero's...... I know nothing.


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## JRG13 (May 11, 2012)

I think we had more rain last year at this point in our area, but we're getting more snow in the mountains at least and Southern Cali/San Joaquin valley have been getting a little more than us. If this super El Nino is going to pan out for us, it's not happening now, but I know Oregon and Washington are getting hit hard....


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

MNbees said:


> Is there less hives needed this year? Prices? Has there been much rain?
> Maybe things will change when all the bees come out of the cellars? Will the bees crashing make a higher price in the end?
> 
> I know nothing. tell me what you know.


R u looking for business advice or r u just nosing into someone else's business out of curiosity?


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## Ian (Jan 16, 2003)

MNbees, what does your grower or broker tell you?


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## HarryVanderpool (Apr 11, 2005)

MNbees said:


> Is there less hives needed this year? ... tell me what you know.


Forecasters and Ag-professionals have reached a consensus that 2 hives per acre will hold this year.


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## Ian (Jan 16, 2003)

HarryVanderpool said:


> Forecasters and Ag-professionals have reached a consensus that 2 hives per acre will hold this year.


Still 800,000 acres of almond trees down there?


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## zhiv9 (Aug 3, 2012)

Ian said:


> Still 800,000 acres of almond trees down there?


I thought it was up over 1 million now?


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

1,200,000


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## HarryVanderpool (Apr 11, 2005)

Acreage is well above a million.
But don't get too excited.
Orchard Mason bees are going to take the place of honeybees , boy-O-howdee!


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## MNbees (May 27, 2013)

sqkcrk said:


> R u looking for business advice or r u just nosing into someone else's business out of curiosity?


Interested because i have bees available to send.


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

How many?


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

I love it, do we hear 800,000 ac.... yes, do we hear 1,000,000 ac yes, do we hear 1,200,000 ac yes, any bids for 1,500,000 ac, going once, going twice.....

where's the popcorn at.


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## JWChesnut (Jul 31, 2013)

The 2015 season bearing acreage was 890,000 with >150,000 acres in non-production (mostly young stands, but a minor fraction aging out of production at 25+ years). 2016 acreage will see the 2012-3 new plantings come into first fruit (about 50K acres). 









Everywhere I have traveled in the valley (Kern south of Bakersfield, Tulare, Madera, Yolo and Colusa) mind boggling tracts of former annual crop land is being cross harrowed into the characteristic pattern of a yet-to-be-planted orchards.

If bearing acreage increases by a nominal 30,000 acres, this implies 140 extra truckloads of bees flowing into the state. 

The "help wanted" ads posted by Paramount out of Punta Gorda, Florida stated they had 30,000 hives under management (ex-Mendes). They are seeking salary beekeepers with 5 years experience that would be fronted 5,000 to 10,000 hives to be managed quasi-autonomously. https://recruiting.adp.com/srccar/p...-External&c=1057741&rb=INDEED&r=5000060735306

Source: http://www.almonds.com/sites/defaul...hments/2015_ca_almond_subjective_forecast.pdf

and

http://www.almonds.com/sites/defaul..._california_almond_objective_presentation.pdf


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

Keith Jarrett said:


> where's the popcorn at.


You know some smart aleck is going to say, "In front of the at." But not me.


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## Sadler91 (Nov 6, 2011)

JWChesnut said:


> The 2015 season bearing acreage was 890,000 with >150,000 acres in non-production (mostly young stands, but a minor fraction aging out of production at 25+ years). 2016 acreage will see the 2012-3 new plantings come into first fruit (about 50K acres).
> 
> View attachment 22261
> 
> ...


Heard through the grape vine that they lost 30% above normal and fired all the Florida Management.


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## Nick Noyes (Apr 28, 2005)

MNbees said:


> Interested because i have bees available to send.


 Send them, there's homes for them!


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## jim lyon (Feb 19, 2006)

This from the Wonderful recruitment site. 

"Once our R&D finds the best beekeeping practices, each leader will need to be adaptable enough to adjust their management according to compelling data"

If R&D finds them I hope they let the rest of us in on the secret. My experience is you can follow the same exact practices two years in a row and end up with different results. Even more to the point, we do pretty much everything the same to all our bees each year and still see wide fluctuations from yards just a few miles apart.


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## Ian (Jan 16, 2003)

So 1 million acres almonds equils the need for 2 million bee hives ? Yes ? No?


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## liljake83 (Jul 2, 2013)

MNbees said:


> Interested because i have bees available to send.


Bee brokers are still advertising in the abj for 2016 almonds must be some openings still


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## liljake83 (Jul 2, 2013)

Ian said:


> So 1 million acres almonds equils the need for 2 million bee hives ? Yes ? No?


There are always those growers who let their neighbors rent the bees


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## Sadler91 (Nov 6, 2011)

With Paramount getting desperate for extra bees I wonder if their prices will come up a bit? They have been calling some of the big boys in Florida for extra bees for almonds.


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## gmcharlie (May 9, 2009)

There was a quite a bit of talk at the CSBA last month about reducing from 2 hives per acre.... don't know where it will lead, but it seems the trees set more nuts than they can grow and "shed" a lot right after pollination. so the trend may be headed to reducing the number of sets by cutting bees.....

Just FYI

O also noted in that job application a REQUIREMENT to be bilingual. funny how to be the boss you have to speak Spanish, but to work their you may not need English.... so much for assimilation.


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## JWChesnut (Jul 31, 2013)

lazybhoney said:


> There was a quite a bit of talk at the CSBA last month about reducing from 2 hives per acre.... don't know where it will lead, but it seems the trees set more nuts than they can grow and "shed" a lot right after pollination. so the trend may be headed to reducing the number of sets by cutting bees.....


An article in the Joe Traynor archive on BeeSource provides the math.... http://www.beesource.com/point-of-view/joe-traynor/almond-pollination-math/

In summary; -- if the bees can fly 4 hours a day in the narrow pollination window, one *strong* colony provides sufficient workforce to pollinate a full yield.

The If>Then part of the equation: if the bees cannot achieve the "flight hours" due to rain, then one colony will fail to provide yield.

Rain has long been know to affect annual nut set -- read this old paper that quantifies what one inch above average does to yield -- https://ucanr.edu/repositoryfiles/ca4205p27-68801.pdf -- answer 100 lbs per acre. 

My guess is the smart almond operation going into a very wet February (predicted) will be looking for "insurance" in the form of a full complement of pollinators. Alternatively, they may assume the crop will be a washout and will be looking to cut costs. Don't think so, considering fungus rots might hit on yields as well.

Variation in nutset correlates with yield, and the historic variation is enormous -->600 lbs/acre -- that variation would buy a lot of pollination contracts







Graph and other interesting data in this slide deck: http://www.almonds.com/sites/defaul..._california_almond_objective_presentation.pdf


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## JRG13 (May 11, 2012)

Lots of new acreage up here as well, I think even with the drought loss, almonds production acreage will remain static or even increase a few percentage points. It may trend down to 1.5 hives per acre with the new self compatible trees if they start dominating the market, haven't heard much on that area in terms of their quality etc... but with the increase in acreage it balances out.


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## gmcharlie (May 9, 2009)

JW, I don't follow that graph? how do you get more yield than nutset?? I can see how yield could be lower if they don't develop but not understanding the swing the other way?


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## bluegrass (Aug 30, 2006)

lazybhoney said:


> JW, I don't follow that graph? how do you get more yield than nutset?? I can see how yield could be lower if they don't develop but not understanding the swing the other way?


It helps if you read what data is being measured . Nut set is per tree and yield is in lbs per acre. It's two different sets of data on one graph, that is how yield is higher than nutset.


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## JWChesnut (Jul 31, 2013)

Nut weight is inversely correlated with nut set. This tends to smooth out the yield response. Years with light nutset had fat fruits, and yields with too many nuts had skinny fruit.


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## gmcharlie (May 9, 2009)

Thanks! that makes sense... also would of course follow that there is an optimium and too many nut sets is as bad as too few!


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## WLeeH (Jan 16, 2015)

Well that all just sounds nuts to me.....


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## MNbees (May 27, 2013)

yes i know there is plenty of demand for bees and can send them easily. Its just over the years i here about so many people paying more for better bees. Well every year i send big doubles and get paid the same as the guy sending 5-8 frame singles. I am not complaining just curious.


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## gmcharlie (May 9, 2009)

you need a new broker...


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## RAK (May 2, 2010)

$190, 6 frame min, 8 average.No brokers involved. Just sayin. 

I dont play the whole broker/gamble/rip your grower off/get ripped off game.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

Well said, RAK


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## beecavalier (Jan 30, 2014)

Used to bring in 4800lbs bulk bees/2000 queens from Orland, California each spring years ago...reverse that process in the fall to boost hives in US that would be heading to the almonds the following spring...in lieu of replacement of packages to Canada after almonds are done.

Oh yah...forgot border was closed...dang. Guess I'll just have to pay $15/lb for almonds for my wife's Christmas baking.


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## jean-marc (Jan 13, 2005)

Ian said:


> So 1 million acres almonds equils the need for 2 million bee hives ? Yes ? No?


Yes.

Jean-Marc


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## jean-marc (Jan 13, 2005)

beecavalier said:


> Used to bring in 4800lbs bulk bees/2000 queens from Orland, California each spring years ago...reverse that process in the fall to boost hives in US that would be heading to the almonds the following spring...in lieu of replacement of packages to Canada after almonds are done.
> 
> Oh yah...forgot border was closed...dang. Guess I'll just have to pay $15/lb for almonds for my wife's Christmas baking.


Let's not go there... especially in light of where honey prices have been going lately.

Jean-Marc


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## AstroZomBEE (Aug 1, 2006)

The Almond growers i work with are calling, asking for us to deliver more loads than normal. Whether another beekeeper backed out or increased acreage is the culprit i don't know.


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## beecavalier (Jan 30, 2014)

jean-marc said:


> Let's not go there... especially in light of where honey prices have been going lately.
> 
> Jean-Marc


Must admit I have a lot of sympathy for the US honey producers these days...our oil-linked devalued dollar still has legs for the downside...so it's not likely to improve soon. Apologize for suggesting an idea that would have the potential to increase pollination revenue in their pockets.


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## jean-marc (Jan 13, 2005)

The idea of a population of bees or a colony that can be shipped in either in a direction where they can make money is certainly appealing. Bees earn their keep in California for a few weeks in the almonds, nice to have them here during a honeyflow. Send them back when they are about to start costing serious dollars to keep overwinter. Hmmm, hey that's a pretty good idea. should of thought of it first.

Jean-Marc


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## beepro (Dec 31, 2012)

The strong El Nino effects have not been here yet. 
Though up north is having a white Christmas this year already.
Some years with the strong El Nino effects we have rains up to
late April into May. So if this year's prediction is true then
the nut set affected by the rains might be lower. The bees will not
go out in Jan to Feb when the almonds are blooming because of the rains.
Unlike last year this year we have rains to replenish the underground
water and snows in the mountains. Still not sure if this is a good or
bad almond year. I know for sure this year will be a good bee year for me as
I will be planting the local open fields with lots of bee flowers and plants. This will
get my bees through the summer dearth.


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## G B (Nov 6, 2009)

Well if paramount adds an extra hive per acre, that 50,000 more hives needed.due to the El Niño . Personally I think think they just lost a bunch of bees and are to proud to admit it. Looks to me like a short year😀. Merry Christmas to all also. GB





JWChesnut said:


> The 2015 season bearing acreage was 890,000 with >150,000 acres in non-production (mostly young stands, but a minor fraction aging out of production at 25+ years). 2016 acreage will see the 2012-3 new plantings come into first fruit (about 50K acres).
> 
> View attachment 22261
> 
> ...


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## Oldtimer (Jul 4, 2010)

jim lyon said:


> This from the Wonderful recruitment site.
> 
> "Once our R&D finds the best beekeeping practices, each leader will need to be adaptable enough to adjust their management according to compelling data"


Ha Ha got to love that corporate speak. If they lost bees pretty obvious why.

See the same kind of language here now some bee businesses are getting big and being run by non beekeeping suit wearing corporate types. Some job ads we see now are corporate buzzwords from beginning to end, the applicant has to be vetted by an employment agency, probably a power dressed woman in an office.


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## delta valley farms (Aug 11, 2015)

I say, Paramount buying bee operations will eventually be good for all of us down the line.


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## beecavalier (Jan 30, 2014)

jean-marc said:


> The idea of a population of bees or a colony that can be shipped in either in a direction where they can make money is certainly appealing. Bees earn their keep in California for a few weeks in the almonds, nice to have them here during a honeyflow. Send them back when they are about to start costing serious dollars to keep overwinter. Hmmm, hey that's a pretty good idea. should of thought of it first.
> 
> Jean-Marc


Don't think it's a new idea...rumor has it that's what is happening now in Montana. I'd like to know how those northern fall bees actually impact colonies in the south...over the winter and the following spring before the almond bloom.

I think an average Canadian beekeeper could ship back to the US 2 ton of the "prized" long-lived winter bees for every 1 ton of spring bees he received in imported packages...then there is the situation of Canadian beekeepers that have bees boiling out of the hives at the end of September like IAN and some of the double queen operators...bump that number going south up a bit.

The silver lining for the Canadian beekeepers...among many other pluses...is that the asset value and/or saleability of their operations would drastically change from the status quo.


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## AstroZomBEE (Aug 1, 2006)

I just received another call looking to buy multiple loads before almonds, and my Almond grower called trying to increase his order again.

Looking like it's gonna be a tight year out there.


Aaron


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## clyderoad (Jun 10, 2012)

AstroZomBEE said:


> I just received another call looking to buy multiple loads before almonds, and my Almond grower called trying to increase his order again.
> 
> Looking like it's gonna be a tight year out there.
> 
> ...


good for the guys with good bees.
does the apparent early tight supply show up in the pollination price?
what price is being offered by the almond growers or are most beekeeps already
under contract?


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

clyderoad said:


> what price is being offered by the almond growers


I don't have an answer for that one, I just give them my price, just like most businesses they set there price, they don't operate on "offers". Best of luck to all in 2016.


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## clyderoad (Jun 10, 2012)

Keith Jarrett said:


> I don't have an answer for that one, I just give them my price, just like most businesses they set there price, they don't operate on "offers". Best of luck to all in 2016.


What I'm wondering is if a month and a half ago growers 'set' their price at 150 and most beekeepers give a price of 170, a month and a half ago there was no meeting of the minds. Now there appears to be a tight supply so have the growers adjusted there price yet to the new reality in order to secure the hives they need? Maybe more hives show up to cover the short and prices stay firm?
I don't send hives to almonds, only trying to understand.
Here, apple growers adjust their price as word gets out regarding winter bee losses and strength of spring build up as apple pollination
nears. Smaller fruit orchards and smaller bee operations though.


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

clyderoad said:


> Here, apple growers adjust their price as word gets out regarding winter bee losses and strength of spring build up as apple pollination nears.


Perhaps on Long Island, but I have not experienced that in other parts of the State.


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## clyderoad (Jun 10, 2012)

sqkcrk said:


> Perhaps on Long Island, but I have not experienced that in other parts of the State.


I don't care much for this other way. Nearly every year one or the other have budged, sometimes both.
Small market on both ends I guess.


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## Keith Jarrett (Dec 10, 2006)

clyderoad;1360913 there was no meeting of the minds.[/QUOTE said:


> Yes, apparently that does seems to happen still, just look at Corey's first post here, that pretty much sums it up. It's a scary thought that one would try to get info and make business decisions based on the internet questioning.


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## Ian (Jan 16, 2003)

... Land lords seem to pick land rent prices from coffee shop talk ...
We try to avoid dealing with the coffee shops


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

Keith Jarrett said:


> I don't have an answer for that one, I just give them my price, just like most businesses they set there price, they don't operate on "offers". Best of luck to all in 2016.


Same with apples in NY. I have one grower who is resistant to raising the fee. It's a fee folks. So I just say, "Alright how many do you want at $X0.00/hive?" and let him decide. If he doesn't want enough, I have other options. Not pollinating apples can mean more honey.


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## Ian (Jan 16, 2003)

beecavalier said:


> I think an average Canadian beekeeper could ship back to the US 2 ton of the "prized" long-lived winter bees for every 1 ton of spring bees he received in imported packages...then there is the situation of Canadian beekeepers that have bees boiling out of the hives at the end of September like IAN and some of the double queen operators...bump that number going south up a bit.
> 
> The silver lining for the Canadian beekeepers...among many other pluses...is that the asset value and/or saleability of their operations would drastically change from the status quo.


defenitly that would present "opportunity", many here would welcome that game. 
We have a good thing going on right now, perhaps when this good thing starts to loose it's shine, as it is now, your thought beecavalier might find the policy to promote it.


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## sqkcrk (Dec 10, 2005)

Things are tight enough in the southland without opening the border to Canadian bees and beekeepers. You should hear some of the turf war dust ups going on in FL with bees out of CA hanging out there until Almonds.


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## Ian (Jan 16, 2003)

sqkcrk said:


> Things are tight enough in the southland without opening the border to Canadian bees and beekeepers. You should hear some of the turf war dust ups going on in FL with bees out of CA hanging out there until Almonds.


Ya it's a game beyond my comfort zone.
But beecavalier is more so talking about sending bulk bees down, and sending bulk bees back in return. It's a thought many are pondering here. Establish hives further south in fall, build into almonds, back south, then shook to supply northern demands. 
Sounds easy eh?


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## babybee (Mar 23, 2012)

What US beekeeper wouldn't love to go make big honey in Canada. I think the Canadians could take our bees on lease and we could take their bees on pollination and wintering.


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## delta valley farms (Aug 11, 2015)

I always set my price but try to be in reality land with my prices. At least comparable. Bees were tight last year in California but overbooking creates throat cutting by some. And yes Florida has been getting more and more crowded in the fall.


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## Ian (Jan 16, 2003)

babybee said:


> What US beekeeper wouldn't love to go make big honey in Canada. I think the Canadians could take our bees on lease and we could take their bees on pollination and wintering.


Lease bees... Who takes the blame for disease, pesticide and incidental bee losses?? Whom ever physically holds the hives at the time of loss count?


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## Bradley_Bee (May 21, 2008)

$ Same as last year. Hey, my log in still works!


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## jean-marc (Jan 13, 2005)

Ian said:


> Lease bees... Who takes the blame for disease, pesticide and incidental bee losses?? Whom ever physically holds the hives at the time of loss count?


Just do the beekeeper thing and blame the other guy. These are just minor things to work out, as long as there is an intent from both parties to make it work. Do you want to find problems or solutions?

Jean-Marc


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## matt1954 (Sep 8, 2010)

Two months ago a grower called me from the Modesto area wanting to get two loads. I quoted him 190.00 and you could hear him fall off his chair. Fast forward to the last week of the year and he calls me asking if that price was still available. I am already locked in with someone else.


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## clyderoad (Jun 10, 2012)

matt1954 said:


> Two months ago a grower........


thanks for relating that scenario.
the floating 'set' price as I suspected, just as it is with every service wanted or offered, item for sale or item for rent.
the one who needs it or wants it the most budges, or goes away empty handed.


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## beecavalier (Jan 30, 2014)

jean-marc said:


> Just do the beekeeper thing and blame the other guy. These are just minor things to work out, as long as there is an intent from both parties to make it work. Do you want to find problems or solutions?
> 
> Jean-Marc


Well said Jean-Marc...ironically this politically incorrect idea would solve 90% of the Canadian beekeeper's problems...while putting dollars in the pockets of those US beekeepers that would partner up with their northern counterparts...with a slight benefit to the almond/fruit industry. It's sure not about the "north American honey commodity" produced on each side of the border competing against itself...off shore honey from countries with devalued currencies has seen to that.

I had nothing but praise and admiration for the beekeeper from Orland, California who used to supply me with packages...a relationship of integrity.


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