# Swarm Date versus Overwintering Success?



## brad5155 (Jan 30, 2019)

Excellent questions! I will preface this by saying I have no idea as i’m New at this. But, a few thoughts. First, IMO, an early season swarm would seem to be a very good sign of health and vitality. Those would be genetics i’d Love to test. I guess one because they obviously overwintered (very important where i live in the north) and 2nd because they were healthy enough to build up strong. I’d say you got a strong queen in that one. Me thinks i’d Be more worried about late swarms tbh. Especially those August September ones which may even be obsconds.


----------



## Eikel (Mar 12, 2014)

Calendars are nice for the beekeepers but I haven't seen a bee consulting one. Personal opinion, I lean more toward phenology and Growing Degree Days (GDD). Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, GDD is a calculation of accumulated heat which can help you to predict the blossoming of plants and trees.

You might research the historic GDD for the dates you mentioned and see if there's a correlation or pick one date and see the differences over the years. Ohio State University has a phonology calendar but it's only applicable to Ohio, if you can find an Ohio location with your plant hardiness zone it can give you a rough idea on the historic variances. http://www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/gdd/

The link below gives a quick explanation as it applies to beekeeping
https://www.beekeeping.isgood.ca/hive-management/swarms/applying-growing-degree-days-to-beekeeping



> is there any harm to have one’s swarm traps out by the date of the first recorded swarms (in my case the First week of March) or is there some anecdotal evidence that swarms caught at a particular point within the local swarm season are generally better adapted to the local seasonal progression?


 I've not noted any anecdotal or other evidence supporting better adaptation based on capture date but have found there are too many variables within a hive and from their external environment to say only the early/late colonies are the better choices. So put your traps out when the spirt moves you


----------



## KevinWI (Mar 18, 2018)

Practically speaking I have no idea....it is a good question.
According to Walt Wright, swarm preparations will start once the first pollen is started being brought in to the colony....they will not swarm without drones...so they will start by the production of drone brood. Once the drones start hatching, they will start the queen cell production and swarming will begin probably 8 days or so later....obviously weather, colony size and health has everything to do with everything else as they will abandon swarming early if the colony cannot afford to swarm....colony survival trumps propagation. So many variables to give any sort of exact science.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

brad5155 said:


> Excellent questions! I will preface this by saying I have no idea as i’m New at this. But, a few thoughts. First, IMO, an early season swarm would seem to be a very good sign of health and vitality. Those would be genetics i’d Love to test. I guess one because they obviously overwintered (very important where i live in the north) and 2nd because they were healthy enough to build up strong.


Brad5155:

Thank you for your reply- I sincerely appreciate it! I like you have much to learn. Succinctly, I concur with your thoughts about overwintering success and strong build-up. I will attempt to further clarify my thoughts (muddled that they are) in my reply to KevinWI's post below.

Thanks again for your input, and good luck in your swarm trapping this year!

Russ


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

Eikel said:


> Personal opinion, I lean more toward phenology and Growing Degree Days (GDD). Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, GDD is a calculation of accumulated heat which can help you to predict the blossoming of plants and trees.


Eikel:

Thank you for your detailed and helpful reply. I appreciated the opportunity to review both of the hyperlinks you sent. I have utilized phenological cues in the past, but have never thought to correlate swarm issuance to these cues. I will further elaborate on my question in my response to KevinWI, but I am eager to find a base 50 growing degree day computation for Kentucky- so far no luck.

Thanks again for the great input- I do appreciate it!

Russ


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

KevinWI said:


> So many variables to give any sort of exact science.


KevinWI:

Thank you for your reply. I do appreciate it. Ironically, I am a self-styled Walt Wright disciple, and his thoughts are what prompted me to think about this idea more deeply.

I was considering this topic from less of a scientific and more of a practical consideration tied to Walt's observation- namely:

If there are colonies in my area which are issuing swarms a full month or more before (i.e. early March) than is typical (i.e. mid April), what if anything can be determined about the swarm itself?

Some conjecture about very early swarms- based on Walt's colony priorities:

1. They are the result of supplemental feeding and/or pollen sub which caused them to build-up and backfill the brood nest earlier than would have been possible based on prevailing forage.

2. They are the result of an exceptionally well-provisioned colony which requires no early nectar gathering to re-supply their Honey Reserve.

3. They are the result of a colony that occupies a particularly small volume which precludes brood nest expansion.

4. They are the result of a colony that is genetically predisposed to be gamblers in colony build-up prior to prevailing forage availability.

5. Others?

I might be overthinking it- which is what lead me to ask whether others had observed early hived swarms being more risky in general in brooding up or there were any patterns relative to the type and constitution of colonies which are the result of much earlier swarms.

As an aside, I recall Walt observing that all colonies in his yard exhibited similar build-up based on phenological cues within a few days of each other- was this as a result of similar genetics, similar management, our should we expect all colonies in ones area will behave similarly regarding prime swarm issuance if left to their own devices?

Thanks again for your response. I do appreciate it.

Russ


----------



## Eikel (Mar 12, 2014)

Russ,
Try the links below. Most of the GDD data is geared toward agriculture crops and determining emergence, germination, the most effective time/temp/GDD for planting and applying herbicide's/pesticides/etc so you have to adjust for what the bees might be doing off of that. Correlating a GDD range when the first swarms might issue is still a work in progress but I'm guessing the 800 range but that's with minimal data input. It feels like trying to forecast the weather, the conditions exist for …..

http://weather.uky.edu/dd.php

http://www.greencastonline.com/growing-degree-days/home


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

Eikel said:


> Correlating a GDD range when the first swarms might issue is still a work in progress but I'm guessing the 800 range but that's with minimal data input. It feels like trying to forecast the weather, the conditions exist for …..


Eikel:

Thank you very much for your helpful reply. I have now opened and worked with both calculators- these are good resources.

For your 800 GDD benchmark, are you beginning the computation at January 1st or another starting date?

Do you employ 50 degrees F as your base temperature?

Using these factors with the two calculators I get a GDD for my locale (42027) of 34.5 (GreenCast) and 56 (UK). Comparing these results to the GDD phenological progress from The Ohio State University calculator seems to suggest that the GreenCast model is more in keeping with local observed conditions- i.e. the Red Maple are preparing to bloom here.

Thanks again for your help. I really do appreciate it!

Russ


----------



## Beebeard (Apr 27, 2016)

Not to muddy the water too much, but I picked up a big swarm in August a few years ago. I put them in a deep, fed syrup, in 2 weeks they got another box. They filled that on a fall flow, overwintered with a big cluster and came out swinging in the spring as a very strong hive with the same queen AFAIK

Our "prime" swarm season is done by July. Who knows why these ones swarmed. Absconded from beetles or mites? Their tree fell over? They don't read beekeeping books?

A hived swarm, well provisioned and treated as you know best has as good a chance of surviving as any other in your care, no matter the calendar.


----------



## JWPalmer (May 1, 2017)

I have to agree with beebeard on this. I caught one of my own swarms in either late Sept. or early Oct. and put them in a five frame nuc. This was a very small swarm about the size of a softball. I fed them heavily and the queen continued to lay until at least the end of Oct. As of last week it was still three good frames of bees and we only have about another three weeks of our "winter" left to go. Queen quality and weather probably play a pretty big role in overall survivability. All a beek needs to do is provide for them to the best of his or her ability.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

Beebeard said:


> A hived swarm, well provisioned and treated as you know best has as good a chance of surviving as any other in your care, no matter the calendar.





JWPalmer said:


> I have to agree with beebeard on this.... All a beek needs to do is provide for them to the best of his or her ability.


Beebeard and JW:

Thank you both for your feedback, and I appreciate you keeping me focused. You are exactly right, that I would certainly not turn away a swarm simply because their arrival does not correspond with a typical Spring swarm profile.

I suppose the question itself was sort of a thought experiment to understand what (if anything) can be ascertained about an exceptionally early swarm.

As it stands, I plan on deploying all my swarm traps in early March, and I will plan on tracking if there are any caught this early- and if so, is there anything noteworthy about them?

Thank you both again for your replies, and best of success to you, your families and your beekeeping efforts this year.

Russ


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

Litsinger said:


> Using these factors with the two calculators I get a GDD for my locale (42027) of 34.5 (GreenCast) and 56 (UK). Comparing these results to the GDD phenological progress from The Ohio State University calculator seems to suggest that the GreenCast model is more in keeping with local observed conditions- i.e. the Red Maple are preparing to bloom here.


For possible future referral by Kentucky beekeeprs, I spoke with Dr. Stuart Foster with Kentucky Mesonet, and he suggested that I utilize the following link for GDD data for Kentucky:

http://www.kymesonet.org/ag.html


----------



## Eikel (Mar 12, 2014)

Yes, I use 50F as the base temp and 1 Jan as a start date. Glad you found a good link.

I use the GDD information only as an indicator when enough cumulative warming has occurred to support the spring cycle of blooms, i.e gives somewhat of a front end "how will this cool/warm spring " change when I should have the traps out and/or potentially see early swarms. The phenology gives a bit of confirmation GDD estimate. It only says "conditions exist that might support swarm activity," aka "looks like it could rain" and has no bearing on the quality or end of swarms - too many other variables. 

Here's link from OU for a list of GDD and bloom values, it's for Chesapeake Ohio, Hardiness zone 6b but I doubt a plant cares if it's in OH or KY, more of a just show me the warmth attitude.

https://www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/gdd/gdd2new.asp?fill=all


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

Eikel said:


> I use the GDD information only as an indicator when enough cumulative warming has occurred to support the spring cycle of blooms, i.e gives somewhat of a front end "how will this cool/warm spring " change when I should have the traps out and/or potentially see early swarms. The phenology gives a bit of confirmation GDD estimate. It only says "conditions exist that might support swarm activity," aka "looks like it could rain" and has no bearing on the quality or end of swarms - too many other variables.


Eikel:

Thank you again for your help- I do sincerely appreciate you taking the time to outline your approach. 

Thanks again for the information and the advice- I am grateful.

Russ


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Litsinger said:


> For possible future referral by Kentucky beekeeprs, I spoke with Dr. Stuart Foster with Kentucky Mesonet, and he suggested that I utilize the following link for GDD data for Kentucky:
> 
> http://www.kymesonet.org/ag.html


I am also in McCracken County. Just starting out this year. I have also been looking at GDD and anticipating when the 1st swarms may appear. I plan on baiting at least 1 trap by the end of this month.


----------



## GregB (Dec 26, 2017)

I feel this idea of "early swarms is good" is overdue for some correction - mites.
The mites have much better chance to build up in an early swarm and successfully kill it later in season (unless you treat, of course).
With this in mind, mid-summer/late-summer swarm maybe a better value than was perceived 100 years ago.

And of course, another bias towards early swarms was that they did not need feeding (a good deal in an era of expensive sugar).

In all, setting up any late swarm for overwintering today is too cheap and too trivial to worry much about.
A late swarm does not automatically means bad bees (for the US context especially due to migratory chaos and cross-county bee sales).
Any swarm has potential value as for me (you don't really know what you got until send them through a fair trial).


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

robber said:


> I am also in McCracken County. Just starting out this year.


Robber:

Glad to hear you are taking the plunge. If ever I can be of help to you, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Best of success to you this year.

Russ


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

GregV said:


> Any swarm has potential value as for me (you don't really know what you got until send them through a fair trial).


GregV:

Thanks for the feedback- the myriad dynamics associated with early versus late swarms is interesting to me, and I share your thoughts that it's worth giving a swarm a try no matter when hived to see what you might have.

I do wonder if the exceptionally early swarms (at least as reported by the Kentucky Swarm Survey) might be the product of late winter supplemental feeding. 

That said, I intend to set-out about a dozen traps over the next two weeks, and monitor if there appears to be anything that can be ascertained from date hived versus colony characteristics...


----------



## GregB (Dec 26, 2017)

Litsinger said:


> GregV: ... a dozen traps over the next two weeks.....


Lucky for you!
We have 3 more months before swarm trapping here.
Fun.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

GregV said:


> Lucky for you!
> We have 3 more months before swarm trapping here.
> Fun.


Well, to be fair I will be setting-out the traps to see if anything happens, but historically swarm season is late April - early May here.

I am setting them out to test if any exceptionally early swarms are hived- I'll report back.


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Baited and set out my first trap yesterday evening. We'll see what happens.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

robber said:


> Baited and set out my first trap yesterday evening. We'll see what happens.


Robber:

Glad to hear that you've got a trap (or maybe a few) out. If you don't mind, let's compare notes given that we are located in the same county.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

Here is an interesting anecdote from the Treatment-Free Facebook forum relative to early swarms:

https://m.facebook.com/groups/69836...32474687&ref=m_notif&notif_t=group_highlights


----------



## clong (Apr 6, 2015)

robber said:


> Baited and set out my first trap yesterday evening. We'll see what happens.


Two traps installed and baited on Feb 15th. Based on the weather forecast, consistent flying days will start this Saturday.

Now you've got me thinking I better get a couple more traps out!

Russ,

Great link on early swarms. Thanks for posting it.


----------



## Hayden01 (Jun 22, 2015)

i've got 6 traps out. 1 had consistent activity Saturday before all the bad weather and cold came rolling though. i'll check them all this weekend , weather permitting.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

clong said:


> Great link on early swarms. Thanks for posting it.


Clong:

Ironically, here is another one already- Stan is in the county North and West of Houston, TX. Interesting that he observed 20% drones:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/fatbeeman/permalink/2035977666470338/


----------



## msl (Sep 6, 2016)

> Here is an interesting anecdote from the Treatment-Free Facebook forum relative to early swarms


Well given the source page, the information becomes instantly suspect. 

I would argue that the small volume of a natural nest had more to do with it


----------



## clong (Apr 6, 2015)

msl said:


> Well given the source page, the information becomes instantly suspect.


Why?


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Nothing yet. Haven't seen any bees near any of the traps I've set out. Had a few bees checking me out in the garage while I was building hives a couple of weeks ago. I guess they had a whiff of the lemongrass oil I spilled on my hands while baiting a second trap that day. Hopefully this week the traffic will pick up since it's supposed to be sunny and in the 50's all week.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

robber said:


> Hopefully this week the traffic will pick up since it's supposed to be sunny and in the 50's all week.


Nothing here either- based on the bloom cues, it looks like we're 10 days - 2 weeks behind last year.

I'll watch for your post when you catch a swarm!


----------



## KevinWI (Mar 18, 2018)

Beebeard said:


> Not to muddy the water too much, but I picked up a big swarm in August a few years ago. I put them in a deep, fed syrup, in 2 weeks they got another box. They filled that on a fall flow, overwintered with a big cluster and came out swinging in the spring as a very strong hive with the same queen AFAIK
> 
> Our "prime" swarm season is done by July. Who knows why these ones swarmed. Absconded from beetles or mites? Their tree fell over? They don't read beekeeping books?
> 
> A hived swarm, well provisioned and treated as you know best has as good a chance of surviving as any other in your care, no matter the calendar.


I can probably offer an educated guess as to why..... my own hive swarmed after the honey flow...which I caught and hived in two deeps.

Cliff notes version...

The rules of swarming

1. Colony survival comes first
2 propagation of the species comes second

The reason hives swarm.
1. Propagation of the species. Early spring buildup, a strong colony will swarm to propagate the species (rule #2) and spread genetics.
a. If a colony is weak, it will forgo swarming because of rule #1. The colony survival comes first.

2. Colony survival. Post honey flow, you have taken off all the supers and forced all the bees down into one or two boxes depending upon your winter configuration. The hive can count....They know they have all these mouths to feed and very limited stores.....so, the colony swarm late for "self sacrifice" because of rule #1. They can't have all those mouths to feed going into fall with limited resources coming in AND make it thru winter.....that swarm has little to no chance of making it thru winter (without beekeeper help), but they have left the colony with a way of surviving by relieving itself of too many mouths to feed. 
This is called a post honey flow swarm.


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Just to update. Flowering cherry trees have been blooming the last week. Just now seeing them covered in bees working them over. No bees on any traps yet, but figure I'll start seeing some in a week or so as more plants begin to bloom and temperatures stay warm.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

robber said:


> Just to update. Flowering cherry trees have been blooming the last week. Just now seeing them covered in bees working them over. No bees on any traps yet, but figure I'll start seeing some in a week or so as more plants begin to bloom and temperatures stay warm.


Nothing here as yet, Robber. The cold weather we recently had slowed everything down. Good luck with your trapping efforts this Spring.


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Saw the first scouts on one of my traps 4/12. So, looks like the swarm season is starting. Not sure how much this quick cold snap is going to slow them down.


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Caught first swarm in a trap yesterday afternoon in the Reidland area. Looks to be about softball size or a little bigger.


----------



## KevinWI (Mar 18, 2018)

robber said:


> Reidland area.


State?


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Kentucky (far western)


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

robber said:


> Caught first swarm in a trap yesterday afternoon in the Reidland area. Looks to be about softball size or a little bigger.


Robber:

Way to go! Do you have other traps out too?

I have been fortunate to have hived five swarms thus far less than 10 miles from where you are at. I have been updating as the season unfolds here:

https://www.beesource.com/forums/showthread.php?351015-Treatment-Free-Bungling-2018/

Keep up the good work- I'd say get some more traps out now if you haven't already. Scout activity has been heavy the last 10 days.


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

I have 7 total out. A couple in Reidland, 1 in Heath area, 1 in Leeder Bottoms area, and 3 around my house. I too have seen a lot of scout activity the last few days. Waiting to see if one at the house gets one, since there were a hundred or so bees scouting it a few days ago. We'll see what unfolds.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

robber said:


> We'll see what unfolds.


Sounds like you are well-represented. Good luck over the next couple of weeks.


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Checked my trap out in the Heath area (Western KY) Saturday and it had a swarm in it. Not sure of the size yet as I'll get them transferred later this week. Guessing they moved in last week sometime.


----------



## robber (Feb 19, 2019)

Litsinger, to summarize so far, 2 swarms caught 5/7 week, 1 in Heath and 1 in Reidland. Caught another swarm a couple of days ago just off of Exit 11. So, seems they were ready for the weather to improve. Been fortunate to get some good locations to put traps. I'll leave my traps out to at least the end of the month. If I catch a few more, I'll definitely be sharing with a couple of people that want more bees.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

robber said:


> Litsinger, to summarize so far, 2 swarms caught 5/7 week, 1 in Heath and 1 in Reidland. Caught another swarm a couple of days ago just off of Exit 11. So, seems they were ready for the weather to improve. Been fortunate to get some good locations to put traps. I'll leave my traps out to at least the end of the month. If I catch a few more, I'll definitely be sharing with a couple of people that want more bees.


Robber:

Glad to hear you are having success. Like you, I am going to leave my traps out for the next couple of weeks on the outside chance that they might interest a stray late swarm. While I will post an extended summary of this year's trapping efforts later, I have hived six swarms this year- four that moved in on their own and two hived swarm clusters. I also lost a nice big swarm from one of my overwintered colonies.

It appears that we are seasonally at the same place we were last year despite the recent cold spell as the Blackberries at my house bloomed the exact same day this year as last (May 13th).

The last swarm I caught last year was on May 9th.

If you find yourself with too many swarms, I always welcome homeless bees .


----------



## clong (Apr 6, 2015)

Litsinger said:


> Robber:
> 
> Glad to hear you are having success. Like you, I am going to leave my traps out for the next couple of weeks on the outside chance that they might interest a stray late swarm. While I will post an extended summary of this year's trapping efforts later, I have hived six swarms this year- four that moved in on their own and two hived swarm clusters. I also lost a nice big swarm from one of my overwintered colonies.


Russ & Robber,

No doubt swarm season is coming to a close. However, I have a trap that I see nearly every work day. Last year I saw 15+ scouts during visits. Once in June, and once in July. No catch though. The location last year was not ideal. This year's is better, and has already caught once.

Just a plug for leaving up a few traps, especially if you can observe them regularly.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

clong said:


> Just a plug for leaving up a few traps, especially if you can observe them regularly.


Great point, CLong. I too had a 'home' trap year that had periodically heavy scout interest through the Summer last year. I always assumed it was forward advance scouts for hives preparing to abscond due to mites and/or hive beetles, but this may be a faulty hypothesis.


----------



## clong (Apr 6, 2015)

Litsinger said:


> Great point, CLong. I too had a 'home' trap year that had periodically heavy scout interest through the Summer last year. I always assumed it was forward advance scouts for hives preparing to abscond due to mites and/or hive beetles, but this may be a faulty hypothesis.


Russ,

I think your hypothesis is good. However, on occasion, it may just be overcrowding or in one case I encountered, a storm-felled bee tree. I suppose it would be wise to closely examine any late-season swarm.

I've learned a lot from daily observation of traps. This year at home, I saw heavy scouting, then - nothing. The 20+ scouts hung around for 2-3 weeks after, growing smaller and more listless by the day. I think they were either reserving the location for an imminent swarm, or a bivouacked one that departed for another location while they were away. Interesting, in any case.


----------



## Litsinger (Jun 14, 2018)

clong said:


> Russ,
> 
> I think your hypothesis is good. However, on occasion, it may just be overcrowding or in one case I encountered, a storm-felled bee tree. I suppose it would be wise to closely examine any late-season swarm.
> 
> I've learned a lot from daily observation of traps. This year at home, I saw heavy scouting, then - nothing. The 20+ scouts hung around for 2-3 weeks after, growing smaller and more listless by the day. I think they were either reserving the location for an imminent swarm, or a bivouacked one that departed for another location while they were away. Interesting, in any case.


CLong:

Good points- I hadn't even considered home destruction as the impetus for an untimely swarm.

I am with you on the scouts, and observed this first-hand with the 'swarm-that-got-away' this year. 

Makes me think of Doolittle's Raiders... as a scout you sign-up for a one-way trip and consider it a bonus if you end up reunited with your colony.


----------

